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It is to the benefit of the voters that Umno does not die. Instead, Umno must be sent into the opposition for at least a term while it goes through an 'overhaul'. Then, once reformed, it can come back and can try to outbid the ruling Pakatan Rakyat government -- if it is able to.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
RESULTS OF THE 8 MARCH 2008 PARLIAMENTARY GENERAL ELECTION
Total: 222 Parliament seats
Barisan Nasional: 4,082,411 popular votes, 50.27%, 140 seats, 63.1%
Pakatan Rakyat: 3,796,464 popular votes, 46.75%, 82 seats, 36.9%
West Malaysia: 166 Parliament seats
UMNO: 2,381,725 popular votes, 29.33%, 79 seats, 35.6% (66 seats in West Malaysia and 13 seats in Sabah)
PKR: 1,509,080 popular votes, 18.58%, 31 seats, 14.0%
DAP: 1,118,025 popular votes, 13.77%, 28 seats, 12.6% (26 seats in West Malaysia, 1 in Sabah and 1 in Sarawak)
PAS: 1,140,676 popular votes, 14.05%, 23 seats, 10.4%
MCA: 840,489 popular votes, 10.35%, 15 seats, 6.8%
MIC: 179,422 popular votes, 2.21%, 3 seats, 1.4%
Gerakan: 184,548 popular votes, 2.27%, 2 seats, 0.9%
PPP: 16,800 popular votes, 0.21%, 0 seats, 0%
Sarawak: 31 Parliament seats (no Umno in Sarawak)
Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu, PBB (14), Parti Rakyat Bersatu Sarawak, SUPP (6), Parti Rakyat Sarawak, PRS (6), Parti Demokratik Progresif Sarawak, SPDP (4), Democratic Action Party, DAP (1).
Sabah: 25 Parliament seats (more than half Umno seats)
Umno (13), Pertubuhan Pasok Momogun Kadazandusun Bersatu, UPKO (4), Parti Bersatu Sabah, PBS (3), Parti Maju Sabah, SAPP (2), Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah, PBRS (1), Parti Liberal Demokratik, LDP (1), Democratic Action Party, DAP (1). *************************************************
In 1999, Parti Keadilan Nasional won 5 Parliament and 4 state seats in the 29 November general election. Exactly one year later, it won another state seat in the Lunas by-election. The following general election the party was practically wiped out when its president, who won the only seat, almost did not make it. Then, in the recent general election, the party bounced back with the second highest votes after Umno and a record number of seats an opposition party has ever won in Malaysian election history. It secured 31 Parliament seats against a measly one the election before.
This certainly says a lot about Malaysian elections when a party that had been classified as ‘dead’ not only bounced back but ended up leading the opposition coalition from its ‘last’ position the two elections before this (in 1999, PKR got only five seats against PAS’ 27 and DAP’s ten, and in 2004, only one against DAP’s 11 and PAS’ nine).
Today, many have written Umno off as well. They feel that Umno is in its death throes and come the next election in 2012/2013 the party will be buried for good. That is exactly what these same people said about PKR soon after the 2004 general election. But PKR did not die. It in fact bounced back stronger than before. What makes them think, therefore, that Umno is on its deathbed?
Umno is still the biggest and strongest party in Malaysia out of roughly 22 or so registered political parties. It garnered 30% of the votes and won 36% of the Parliament seats. It is also heading seven state governments against PAS’ three and DAP’s, PKR’s and PBB’s one each.
Umno’s 79 Parliament seats almost matches the 82 of the three opposition parties combined. No doubt, in West Malaysia, Umno won only 66 seats against the opposition’s 80. But Sabah and Sarawak have always been Umno’s strength because these two states contribute to 25% of the total seats and Umno always has a strong hold on Sabah and Sarawak, directly and indirectly.
No, Umno is far from dead. If it manages to reform itself it may yet bounce back stronger than ever. If you hope to kill Umno off in the next election then that will be wishful thinking. It did not happen to PKR, in spite of all the doomsday predictions, so why should it happen to Umno?
Sure, Umno may be sent into the opposition ranks together with the rest of its coalition partners in Barisan Nasional. But that will only mean Malaysia, for the first time, will have a strong opposition. And that will also mean Malaysia, for the first time, will be seeing a new federal government. That is possible. That is not wishful thinking. But for that to happen at least 15 or so Umno MPs have to cross over to Pakatan Rakyat -- plus some of the coalition partners in Barisan Nasional have to leave the ruling coalition to join the opposition coalition, which will be transformed into the new ruling coalition.
15 Umno MPs is quite possible when 13 of them are in Sabah. Even if only ten crosses over that would mean Pakatan Rakyat needs just another five from West Malaysia. And there are enough unhappy Umno MPs in West Malaysia who feel that Umno has lost its direction.
PBB, which has 14 Parliament seats in Sarawak, can be expected to stay with Barisan Nasional. But there are still four more Sarawak parties controlling 16 seats that are in ‘talking terms’ with Anwar Ibrahim. Plus there are five more non-Umno parties in Sabah that control 11 more seats.
So, getting at least 30 Barisan Nasional MPs to cross over is not that difficult. The only thing is they will not personally cross over as such. They will remain in their parties and their parties will leave Barisan Nasional and join Pakatan Rakyat. The Umno Sabah MPs, in turn, will form a new party (or revive an old party) and their party too will join Pakatan Rakyat.
And that only leaves the Umno MPs from West Malaysia. If a device can be created whereas they need not resign from Umno to join PAS or PKR but instead they can join a new (or old) party that will become a component party of Pakatan Rakyat, then Anwar Ibrahim’s 16 September deadline is no wishful thinking.
When that happens, though, Umno will be forced to reinvent itself, or will at least be embroiled in a leadership change. It will not die. And a reinvented Umno will be a stronger Umno. And when Umno becomes strong again it will no longer remain in the opposition. Instead, it will bounce back come the next election, just like PKR in the recent election, and it will retake control of the federal government.
Chances are Pakatan Rakyat, if they form the next federal government come 16 September, will be just a one-term government. They will have to invent some marvellous new strategies if they want to stay two terms. Just pointing out the wrongs of the previous government is not good enough any longer. People will soon get tired of all the blaming and finger pointing. By then Umno would have reinvented and repackaged itself to attract the voters. And that can only mean good things for Malaysia. When two parties try to outdo each other and fall over each other in trying to impress the voters, then Malaysians can only benefit.
And that is what we hope will happen come 16 September 2008. Come 16 September, Malaysia will see a two-party system emerge, both equally strong, and both trying to sell themselves to the voters with fantastic offers that the voters just can’t resist. Voters will be placed in a dilemma in trying to make their decision because both offers will be just too attractive and too good to say no to. And that will be when the voters will become smart. The voters will cleverly play one party against the other and will always come out the winner because the ‘threat’ of allowing one party to rule for a term, and the next for another term, will keep everyone on their toes.
It is to the benefit of the voters that Umno does not die. Instead, Umno must be sent into the opposition for at least a term while it goes through an 'overhaul'. Then, once reformed, it can come back and can try to outbid the ruling Pakatan Rakyat government -- if it is able to. The voters will then have two good choices to play around with. And once both know that the voters may allow each to take turns to rule, no longer will the politicians take the voters for granted, like they do now. *************************************************
Five major challenges facing Malaysia's PM
(Reuters) - Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, fighting for his political survival since an election in March, is now weathering a storm over a steep rise in fuel prices that some say may hasten his departure.
Burdened by a soaring subsidy bill, his government raised petrol prices by 41 percent last week in a politically unpopular move that could drive inflation to a 10-year high and slow economic growth.
Following are five major challenges facing Abdullah:
ANTI-FUEL PROTESTS
- Abdullah's administration faces an acid test to quell mounting anger and, possibly, more organised street protests over the fuel price hikes.
The opposition, emboldened after a good showing in March elections, has proposed bringing 100,000 people to the city centre on July 12 to protest against the fuel hike.
This could be the country's biggest anti-government protest ever, but whether it is allowed to take place remains to be seen. Malaysia bans gatherings of five or more people without a police permit.
ECONOMIC TEST
- Abdullah, who is also the Finance Minister, will present the 2009 national budget in parliament on Aug. 29. His faces a delicate task of trying to appease voters with generous tax cuts while keeping a tight rein on the fiscal deficit.
PERCEPTION PROBLEM
- Even before the March election debacle, Abdullah was perceived to be suffering from a credibility problem after flip-flops over policy decisions.
These included the scrapping of a plan to replace Malaysia's side of the causeway to Singapore, drawing a sharp rebuke from ex-premier Mahathir Mohamad and costing the government millions of dollars in compensation to the contractor.
In addition, a ban on the sale of petrol and diesel to foreign motorists at the borders was lifted, days after it was announced last month.
"No one seems to believe him anymore," said one political analyst who declined to be named.
LEADERSHIP TEST
- Former prime minister Mahathir Mahathir Mohamad's shock resignation from United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) and his call for Abdullah to resign late last month has prompted speculation that festering rifts in the party could widen and speed up the premier's exit.
Abdullah has said he would defend his post as leader of UMNO at party elections in December. A win will mean that he remains prime minister.
In a face-saving measure, Abdullah could quietly arrange to hand power over to his stated successor, Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak, to avoid a humiliating defeat at the December party polls.
THE ANWAR FACTOR
- Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim's claim that the opposition coalition would be capable of forming the next government by mid-September will continue to unsettle Abdullah.
Anwar has said he has enough lawmakers to topple the government following the March election and was waiting for the right moment.
(Reporting by Jalil Hamid; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani and David Fox)
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The Blogs 
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it's better than no choice, right?
I agree, that UMNO is not necessarily on its deathbed, but what the rakayt should now push on for, is the death of race based politics, for the idea that malaysa can only be represented by umno, chinese can only be represented by mca and indians by mic (and so forth)is morally reprehensible for it expouses the 'jaga kaum sendiri' mentality that hinders the growth of malaysia as a nation. So voters, come what may, kill off race based politics!