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Coping With Recession PDF Print
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Wednesday, 11 June 2008 10:12

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The economic recession is a phenomenon around the world and there is no exception for our country. Therefore, we must face the reality and accept lower economic growth rates.

Translated by SOONG PHUI JEE/ Sin Chew Daily

Danger could be sensed everywhere in the recent international share market. Last Friday (6 June) the U.S. Dow Jones index plunged nearly 400 points or 3.13%, while crude oil prices surged a new record high, several bourses fell in tandem, including Japan, Taiwan, Korea and Malaysia markets on Monday (9 June). The global stock market crash also affected foreign exchange markets as some countries suffered a devaluation of currency. Besides, the bad news from all around the world like floods in China and Hong Kong and the increasingly serious global food crisis are getting people worried that the 1930s world economic crisis might repeat itself. Thus, the people are very much concerned about the measures taken by our government this time.

Firstly, the current international economy issue, especially oil prices hikes, is the most delicacy problem. A year ago, no one predicted and warned of such serious economic crisis. The eight industrial countries issued a statement after having a meeting with China, India and Korea in Japan to call for an increase in oil production as they were worried about oil prices might lead to economic recession. On the other hand, the situation in the Middle East turned into a tension as Israel threatened not to deny the posssibility of attacking Iran, making the international oil prices surged to US$139 a barrel. Oil prices and stock markets are affectng each other and the world is currently caught in the economic downturn. It is characterised by price falls of shares, real estates, and other assets, currency devaluations, decline in economic growth, upsurge in unemployment rate, reduction of real wages and the tension in inflation. Today's level of economic recession is in fact not far away from the one in 1930s.

"Therefore, we must face the reality and accept lower economic growth rates."

The Federal Reserve Bank of the United States has lowered interest rates several times and even the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Ben Bernanke has issued a rare warning that a weak U.S. Currency would increase the risk of inflation, but this has fallen on deaf ears. In other words, this wave of economic problems arose from the credit crisis and the government has failed to come up with effective countermeasures, making the people more and more pessimistic about the economic prospects.

Secondly, the world's major economies are currently at different stages of the business cycle. This phenomenon will only compound the problem.

Currently, the U.S. Economy is the dumps and its unemployment rate has risen to 5.5% in May, setting a new record high in 22 years while its growth rate dropped substantially and its corporate earnings growth is sluggish. As the United States is the world's largest economy, it leads the world into economic recession. Japan is the second world's largest economy with the largest trade surplus, but its continuing recession and currency devaluations is causing great pressures to other industrial countries.

Thirdly, the chain effect of current international trade and financial activities has been greatly enhanced. For example, the devaluation of the yen has immediately weakened other Asian currencies while the U.S. stock market crash also led to global market fall. It weakens the stability of the international financial system.

The economic recession is a phenomenon around the world and there is no exception for our country. Therefore, we must face the reality and accept lower economic growth rates. For example, we might have only 5%-6% economic growth rate this year. Although it is lower than last year, it is relatively high compared to other countries. In a highly uncertain environment, it is more important to go for stability rather than growth. As long as we can prove that our economic performances are far better than most of other countries, international capital will certainly return and stabilise our stock market and currency.

As for the government's measures to increase fuel prices, most outsiders hold prudent views. In addition, the government is actively seeking for ways to stimulate domestic demand to reduce the harm caused by the slowdown in growth. However, the government's administrative efficiency has long not being enhanced, resulting in serious damage of the nation's competitiveness. This gets people worried as measures to stimulate domestic demand has to rely on the large-scale efforts from various ministries of the government. Enhancing efficiency would be the key to success in maintaining moderate economic growth. The government should quickly develop an effective scheme to cope with oil price hikes.
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written by grant, June 11, 2008 10:25:30
With Msia nothing to show in its FDI, our economic growth is basically stagnant. With the recession to hit, our economic growth will be even worse.

The govt shud focus several items on the parallel...

1 - Stop sabotaging PR and start working their butts off
2 - Reduce inflation, reduce cost with any means of efforts. Many small efforts will lead to a substantiate amount at the end of the day
3 - Focus on bringing FDI or any form of investments into the country
4 - Focus on our internal economy apart from FDI.
5 - All this will come in tangent with raising our currency least to say.

Above all mentioned, what is the government doing? Nothing!
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written by PAKRAK, June 11, 2008 10:29:51
How do you expect the government to reverse the situation or introduce/ implement effective scheme to cope with oil price hikes? The goons DO NOT
understand economics.
They are just plain stupid...bodoh...moe tow loh...poorah!
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written by Rainforest, June 11, 2008 10:37:02
The BN Government keeps announcing growth rate above 5%, but the business people knows best. I am sure recession is already here and the inflation figure annouce by the government is also a joke! Nobody can believe their figure when they go marketing and see the reality on the ground. Maybe badawi has not been shopping recently nor his wife, sitting in the Putrajaya Ivory towers!!!
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written by Sribayu, June 11, 2008 10:43:35
My mum always asking me this question every time when Zeti Aziz appears on TV… “Why the Bank Negara always shows a positive index/statistics al the times but we are still susah?”

Bank Negara can still reveal untruth but the Rakyat will make their own prediction/statistics too.
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written by ksmaniam, June 11, 2008 11:05:05
The goverment can invest money in the following which can later generate income:
1. INcrease cultivation in rice presently, so that we can be self sufficient. Than have a good R&D to develop it further so that WE CAN EXPORT IT. NOT HAVE A R&D TO BUY IT (like bernas has been doing). Cummon lah.
2. Increase development programmes to increase food production in every field. This products will always be in demand.
3. Tap our rivers for hydro, ecoculture, water to sell to neighbouring countries, etc...seriously have a think tank to look into this natural bank which we are under utilising.
4. Education is a business which the government never tapped in a proper manner. Universities can make money bringing in education tourist, in addition to making our rakyaat more smart. cummon lah. i can go on and on and on.
cummon.
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written by cheemengwong, June 11, 2008 11:05:29
Pain is inevitable, but Misery to the Raayat is optional.

This the government of the day must understand. Government must take evasive economic actions to ensure the Raayat do not have to live in Misery!

The Government has milked the Raayat for too long and we are now suffering in pain. But pain is ok. Don't let the Raayat fall into the next level of living in Misery!

Cut off the excessive now!. Cut Salary, Entertainment, allowances, Holidays etc of all government head by 60 %.

Then the private sector can follow suit by being thrifty.

The BN government must now work hand in hand with the PKR.

Then and only then can the country propser again.
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written by ghondoruwo, June 11, 2008 11:38:25
The other thing that increase with oil price, but with greater quantum, is UMNO leaders' stupidity. It seems to them that only UMNO men could do the jobs - what happened to Sanusi & Mokhzani!!! While the rakyat panicking on the impacts of fuel price increase, the UMNO MT goons had a luxurious retreat just to come to a conclusion that something had to be done to recover from PRU 12 failures. We had known all these on the evening March 8 la....moron!!!!
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written by datukbendahara69, June 11, 2008 12:29:22
The Transport Ministry under the wise leadership of Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is currently conducting a study on ways to release peoples burden particularly in the midst of rising fuel affecting parents paying schoold bus fare. The Ministry is looking in a possibility of asking parent to substitute diesel guzzling bus with a new mode of transportation (see picture below) which will completely minimize the cost of transporting school children. The are finalizing the study which will be presented to the people in a later date.

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written by DAL Wong, June 11, 2008 12:47:30
Cakap tak serupa bikin
How does cutting 10% from the entertainment allowance help the rakyat? All for show only. In the first instance , menter menteri should not be entertained for isn't this a form of corruption. All expenses also on the rakyat, so what or whom are they entertaining? Just cut off the allowance completely and the money saved should go straight into a DANA Rakyat specifically for the improvement in the transport sector.
And why should we be paying for their holiday? What a mockery! You think we are stupid. Using our taxes to go on a week long holiday whilst the rakyat's back is bent over, and being screwed by you at the same time
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written by grant, June 11, 2008 12:57:33
The other way the govt could help out is increase the tax relieve in our yearly tax declaration... for example, increasing individual relieve from 8k to maybe 12k. or perhaps give a straight out tax rebate of 1k.

Since this money are paid by the rakyat on a lump sum, there is no loss for the govt to earn lesser since they are not even forking out a single cent for this rebates/relieve...

My radical thought right now is all 28Million Msians shud not pay tax in 2009. That will truly hurt the government and let's see what they are going to do about it. Is the government going to jail 28Million people altogether by then for not paying tax? I am hoping to see how big the jail is for 28Million people...
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written by archie, June 12, 2008 02:32:24
"Today's level of economic recession is in fact not far from the one in 1930s."

An economy is in recession when its GDP declines for more than one consecutive quarter. None of the major economies is in recession right now, though some may be heading for one. Neither is Malaysia in recession now. What the world experienced in 1930s was a depression, a much more sever economic downturn than a recession.
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