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Oil could hit US$150 in next two months, say experts PDF Print
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Wednesday, 11 June 2008 09:58

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They foresee that the commodity could touch US$200 in four years

OIL experts yesterday tipped crude oil prices to surge to US$150 a barrel in the next two months, citing factors that include strong demand and speculation by commodities traders.

PLAIN AND SIMPLE: 'There is a lot of speculation...I think the increase is due to fundamental issues. There is more oil being consumed and less oil being discovered.' - MR SALLEE, of World-GTL, on what is driving the price of oil up

Industry figures at the annual Asia Oil and Gas Conference also said prices could even escalate to US$180 to US$200 a barrel in the next four years.

'It will go to US$150 a barrel in the short term,' Dr Fereidun Fesharaki, the chairman of oil consultancy Facts Global Energy, said on the sidelines of the two-day conference.

'Fundamentally, it can go to US$180 to US$200 a barrel by 2012 and 2013,' he said, adding that while high prices had impacted on demand growth, new players had emerged.

'Demand in the United States and many key Asian countries has stopped growing,' he said in a conference paper. 'China, India and the Middle East countries have locked in a demand growth of some one million barrels per day.'

Dr Fereidun, the conference chairman, said price increases in the past two to three months 'are all due to huge inflows of speculative money'.

Crude oil costs rose in Asia yesterday despite a call by the world's leading producer, Saudi Arabia, for talks with consumer nations.

New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for July delivery, gained 63 US cents to US$134.98 a barrel. The contract slid US$4.19 a barrel to close at US$134.35 on Monday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Last Friday, the two benchmark crude oil futures contracts hit all-time highs of US$139.12 in New York and US$138.12 in London.

There is global pressure to cool prices, which are stoking inflation and fuelling unrest.

Even the experts, however, cannot agree on who is to blame for the spiralling prices.

Mr John Sallee, the managing director of clean energy firm World-

GTL, said a lack of major oil discoveries and shortage of refinery capacity were pushing oil prices up.

'There is a lot of speculation. It is an easy thing to blame. I think the increase in prices is due to fundamental issues. There is more oil being consumed and less oil being discovered,' he said.

Mr Sallee also said crude oil could hit US$150 a barrel in the next one or two months. 'In the long run, it will go higher.'

Mr Yutaka Kunigo, the Japan-based executive officer with Tokyo Gas, described the prevailing high crude oil prices as 'crazy'.

'It does not reflect the supply and demand situation. I think speculation by commodities traders is the main reason,' he said.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

Comments (23)Add Comment
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written by binarytan, June 11, 2008 10:01:14
If it were, then Petronas untung byk, melambak.

But Rakyat of Malaysia will suffer as the sleephead PM will increase the petrol price. He did not even know to manage the country from day one.

Typical flip flop AAB, worst PM of Malaysia ever!!!

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written by dinozilla, June 11, 2008 10:07:45
many should have aware that the huge hike of now is caused by people like Soros, instead of short of supply, or real tension.
these experts probably has put money on this...so they sure love to create tension to push the price higher....
once the bubble burst....stupid gov bankrupt, rakyat suffer....
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written by ALBERTUS, June 11, 2008 10:28:29
I think the forecast of USD$200 per barrel within the next 4 years is much more optimistic. I think we can reach that figure end of the year. We already breached the USD$100 per barrel mark within months so what's to stop from reaching USD$200 by year end! If like that forget it about me travelling during the holidays. Might as well sit at home and eat kuaci.
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written by temenggong, June 11, 2008 10:30:33
At the beginning of the year the oil price was $90 per barrel. Today, six months later its $140 per barrel.

This report is too optimistic! Oil prices will rise to $150 by end of this month! It will rise to $200 by end of this year!

At some point this year sales of vehicles in India will hit 1 million per month! Thats one million new vehicles each month demanding oil every week! Even if all else remains the same this alone will disrupt the market prices!
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written by Wudan, June 11, 2008 10:38:05
MT readers may like to read this to have another opinion.

Studying commodities exchange data, silver market analyst Ted Butler reports that the price of oil has been driven up not by the current scapegoats, index funds holding for the long term, but by panicked short speculators covering their positions. Butler argues that the explosion in oil prices is what will be coming in silver, for the same reason, only more so, because the short position is in even fewer hands than the short position in oil. Butler's new commentary is headlined "The Real Speculators" and you can find it at GoldSeek's companion site, SilverSeek, here:

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1213126384.php

(lifted from GATA website)
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written by Kedahan, June 11, 2008 10:38:25
so.. are we going to see fuel price going up to RM3.5/l ot RM5.0/l??

and of course more money to Petronas so that gov. can tax and put money to "good" use like making sure GOOD PUBLIC TRANSPORT & EDUCATION. which should logically be concurrent with price hikes.

btw, I'm sick of hearing millions going into this, millions going into that. all Abdullah has to do is as follows:

on Transportation
I Abdullah, swear that by 3Jan2009, the public transport in KL would be reliable. meaning travel routes and times will be fixed, travel time will be 80% accurate, and everyone will travel in comfort because I and all public servants will take public transport ONLY from today onwards.

on Education
I Abdullah, swear by Jan2009, my children and all my decendants, and the decendants of all PUBLIC SERVANTS, will send our children, and their children to PUBLIC SCHOOLS ONLY up to UNIVERSITY for undergraduate course. When they graduate from local university, and they have excellent results, and they need to pursue specialised courses not available in Malaysia to obtain their PhD, then they may go overseas to study. Upon their graduation, they shall return to SERVE MALAYSIA for whatever crappy pay because they trust in my administration.

Failing either of the above, I Abdulah and all my deputies, will resign from office and politics.

Thank you.
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written by Aiseiman, June 11, 2008 10:54:36
US200?

Then there will be wars! First to rob those big-fat-oil-lambs!

I don't think they will be 'lucky' then!!!
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written by slash n burn, June 11, 2008 11:10:52
That burden should at least be compensated by lowering (or abolish )import duty, excise and sales tax on cheap good quality foreign cars. Its time to lift protection and scrapped besi buruk Proton.
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written by shamsulnizam, June 11, 2008 11:25:47
Kuaci pun naik harga.. dulu satu kuaci kecik, RM1.90 sikalang rm2.50, nanti naik RM5.00 Mau duduk rumah makan kuaci pun kene pikir 2-3 kali dulu....
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written by Sembahyanglahkamu, June 11, 2008 11:27:49
"prices could even escalate to US$180 to US$200 a barrel"

Be prepared for another petrol price increase....
MANY MORE MALAYSIAN RAKYATS WILL BE BLACKLISTED IN CTOS(MUFLIS)
"Apa nak buat sekarang....Makan Pasir loh"
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written by RHann, June 11, 2008 11:32:24
Just see a talkshow in tv in USA. All the economy and oil expert overhere expected that it won't go more than USD150 per barrel.They already started with all the alternatives for power/energy. The gas/petrol price today is USD4.03/gallon.
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written by cheemengwong, June 11, 2008 12:12:40
There is no smoke if there is no Fire.

We must consume less petrol and it is everybody's job now. Reduce the demand and the supply will automatically increase.

Go for less window shopping, less jalan jalan in shopping malls.
Take a motorbike or bicycle or walk if near!
Less vacation by car, take bus, train.
Use less electricity, shut off air con if not using.
Use less gas for cooking, instead use firewood or charcoal.better eat raw!
Burnt those gas guzzler cars found used by politicians on the road.
Burnt our own gas guzzlers found in our house. Maybe can sell for scrap lah!
Get Pak Lah to travel by boat to international conventions
and so..forth... many ways lah


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written by Rundukon, June 11, 2008 12:20:08
Nampak gaya penduduk2 Sabah di Pitas, Beluran dan Kinabatangan akan terus merana kerana terpaksa makan ubu kayu TANPA garam.

On a brighter side, kajian menunjukkan garam boleh diproses dari peluh kita. Sekiranya begitu sebelum makan ubi kayu,kita pi jogging dulu untuk keluarkan peluh dan masa makan nanti boleh lah kita cecah ubi kayu pada badan.

Perhaps the MPs concerned, Maximus Ongkili, Ronald Liandee and Bung Mokhtar could show and lead by example! Eating ubi kayu cecah dengan peluh badan!
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written by DezMalaysia, June 11, 2008 13:51:11
Wow ! What a great news !

Pak Lah already awaken ! So the price of petrol & diesel are now RM 2.70 & RM 2.58 ! And, he's back to sleep again...

The next time he wakes up, there may be lesser subdidies... pop~* ! RM 5 per litre ! Still cheaper than America's oil AND also cheaper than a pack of 1 litre orange juice by that time !

Then our BodohWi will speak officialy on TV, "Our oil is still the cheapest in the region except Brunei !".

Najis will tell Malaysians to be grateful, thankful, that BN still can cope with and manage well of the situation, and "we will bear the burden together with rakyats". "UBAH GAYA HIDUP !".

Do MAlaysians look that stupid ?

Baruah Nasional, Bangsat Negara, Babi Negara, and all type of BNs,
KEMBALIKAN WANG RAKYAT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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written by bananachinese, June 11, 2008 14:12:35
Even dogs felt it:

http://mylivingwall.com/v3/ind...d-Sad-Dogs

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written by TanBH, June 11, 2008 15:22:37
FUEL PRICE GOING TO HIT US$200. THATS GOOD NEWS FOR US MALAYSIAN, RIGHT?????? BECAUSE THAT MEAN MORE PROFITS FOR OUR COUNTRY CAUSE WE ARE ONE OF THE OIL PRODUCING COUNTRY. LOOK AT THE ARABS COUNTRY, ALL THE CITIZENS ARE RICH AND THEIR OIL IS CHEAPER THAN DRINKING WATER.WONDER WHY WE HAD TO SUFFER HERE WHEN OIL PRICE GOES UP, WE SHOULD BE CELEBRATING, BUT INSTEAD WE ARE SUFFERING, ANYWAY, MANY THANKS TO THOSE VOTERS FOR THEIR HELP TO PUT THOSE BASTARDS IN POWER.
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written by arankaru19, June 11, 2008 15:39:44
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written by mgeo, June 11, 2008 20:04:01
These soothsayers are shameless, spouting after the fact. And the economic pundits are no better, asking for more oil production when
(a) there is excess oil waiting in tankers off Iran, waiting for buyers, and OPEC has not been given any proof of physical shortage.
(b) the pundits are unable to do anything about the hidden speculateors.
It is just like the Asian Financial Crisis.
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written by Arubin, June 11, 2008 21:17:19
I Abdullah, swear by Jan2009, my children and all my decendants, and the decendants of all PUBLIC SERVANTS, will send our children, and their children to PUBLIC SCHOOLS ONLY up to UNIVERSITY for undergraduate course.

Boring lar...What I would rather hear:

I, Abdullah Badawi, swear by my pillow that I will not allow my children or any of my descendants to marry uncouth primates, thus resulting in the subclass of humanity known as 'Mat Rempits' being somehow championed as future leaders of this country. I also swear that I will not adopt greedy godsons who enjoy organizing expensive boat races and turning green lungs into concrete eyesores.
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written by OilMan, June 11, 2008 23:08:01
Wow. OK some facts that the general population may not be aware of.
- Malaysia produces high quality crude & most of it are exported due to the high prices as our crude is sold at the Tapis crude price which is higher than the world crude price (so Petronas gains more lah). Example: If world crude price is USD 140 then Tapis crude price will be USD 145
- most of the oil used in Malaysia is imported as it is actually cheaper than the world price crude oil price i.e. heavy crude.
- presently the ranking in terms of highest crude producing states in Malaysia is as follows; 1. Terengganu 2. Sarawak 3. Sabah. However by the year 2011 the ranking will be as follows; 1. Sabah 2. Terengganu 3. Sarawak. This can only mean that the crude oil production in Malaysia will actually increase much more in 2 years.
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written by renoir, June 12, 2008 11:34:09
>'China, India and the Middle East countries have locked in a demand growth of some one million barrels per day.']]


Another blatant attempt propagated by the Western media such as AP, AFP, Reuters, etc., and their proxies to place most of the blame on the Asian countries. The US, with less than one quarter the population of China, uses for times the energy. Having "stop growing" isn't enough - America must cut down its energy use to reflect its share of the world's population.

In his article “Why Oil Prices Are So High” Paul Craig Roberts, formerly Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President Reagan, correctly summed up the cause for the so-called “oil crisis” – “a weak dollar, bad Fed policies, and hedge fund speculators.”

“The dollar is weak,” he said, “because of large trade and budget deficits …. As abuse wears out the US dollar’s reserve currency role, sellers demand more dollars as a hedge against its declining exchange value and ultimate loss of reserve currency status.

“...the Federal Reserve is pouring out liquidity that is financing speculation in oil futures contracts. Hedge funds and investment banks are restoring their impaired capital structures with profits made by speculating in highly leveraged oil future contracts, just as real estate speculators flipping contracts pushed up home prices.”

Roberts quoted the Saudi Oil Minister as saying that there’s no justification for the current rise in prices, meaning “there are no shortages or supply disruptions. He means no real reasons as distinct from speculative or psychological reasons.”

Roberts also noted that “the run up in oil price coincides with a period of heightened US and Israeli military aggression in the Middle East. However, the biggest jump has been in the last 18 months….When Bush invaded Iraq in 2003, the average price of oil that year was about $27 per barrel, or about $31 in inflation adjusted 2007 dollars. The price rose another $10 in 2004 to an average annual price of $42 (in 2007 dollars), another $12 in 2005, $7 in 2006, and $4 in 2007 to $65. But in the last few months the price has more than doubled to about $135. It is difficult to explain a $70 jump in price in terms other than speculation.

“Oil prices have been high in the past. Until 2008, the record monthly oil price was $104 in December 1979 (measured in December 2007 dollars). As recently as 1998 the real price of oil was lower than in 1946 when the nominal price of oil was $1.63 per barrel. During the Bush regime, the price of oil in 2007 dollars has risen from $27 to approximately $135.”

American Senator Bernie Sanders pointed out the current price of oil “cannot be explained away by supply and demand…. rampant speculation and greed is, to a large degree, fueling the price of oil and gas.”

And of course some of the biggest culprits are the major oil companies who’d started making super-enormous profits since 2004. Below are some numbers as to how much they’d made in last year’s third quarter:

Exxon Mobil Corp – third quarter profits $5.68 billion, up 60 percent same period last year.

Chevron Texaco - $3.2 billion, profit per share up from $1.01 to $1.51 for same third quarter period last year.

Conoco Phillips - $2.86 per share from $1.90 last year.

Unocal Corp – 58 cents last year to $1.23, a clean profit of 112 percent.

Britain’s BP also made tremendous profits – about 40 percent increase in net earnings.

So it’s not the lack of oil that’s causing the high prices, but largely speculation and corporate greed. Throwing mud on India and China and the Middle East for the artificial oil crisis is of course not unusual for those despicable Western institutions and their proxies.

LChuah.
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written by ladasiber, June 14, 2008 10:35:42
1997-1998 - Negara-negara Asia khususnya dilanda dengan krisis mata wang yang mengakibatkan kegawatan ekonomi di negara-negara kaya seperti Korea, Jepun Taiwan dan Hong Kong; tidak terkecuali Malaysia, Singapura, Indonesia, dan negara serantau. Negara yang kaya lebih teruk berbanding negara miskin.

Masa itu PM Malaysia, walaupun tidak popular akibat cuba membunuh kerjaya politik mantan timbalannya, masih berjaya membawa keluar Malaysia dari kemelut tersebut dengan langkah-langkah yang tidak membebankan rakyat. Walaupun matawang Malaysia menjadi rendah berbanding mata wang serantau rakyat tidak begitu terasa bebanan kos sara hidup.

Kini 2007-2008, Malaysia sebagai sebuah negara pengeluar minyak, yang mendapat keuntungan hasil jualan minyak terpaksa menaikkan harga minyak mengikut harga semasa yang begitu membebankan rakyat. Alasannya, kerajaan terpaksa mengagihkan pendapatan hasil jualan minyak untuk subsidi bahan makanan dan juga pembangunan negara. Seolah-olah Negara tidak mempunyai sumber pendapatan lain. Seolah-olah negara tidak lagi beupaya untuk membuat cari gali minyak di tempat-tempat lain.

PM sekarang gagal untuk melaksanakan program-program untuk membantu rakyat. Harga petrol dan diesel negara masih rendah jika dibanding dengan negara serantau yang bukan negara pengeluar minyak. (Hairan! kita dibandingkan dengan negara bukan pengeluar minyak - kan bodoh tu). Cuba bandingkan dengan kategori yang sama, barulah adil.

Apalah nasib Malaysia mempunyai PM yang paling bodoh dalam dunia (tak payah bandingkan dengan negara-negara serantau. He is not even in the same league with Lee Hsien Loong)
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