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March 24 – The battle lines have been drawn, and only a miracle can prevent the constitutional crisis in Terengganu from reaching two conclusions: The dissolution of the state assembly and fresh elections -- or a lengthy court battle.
This picture will become clearer to Attorney-General Tan Sri Abdul Gani Patail if he manages to get an audience with the Malaysian King today to clear issues on the Terengganu state constitution. He is likely to realise that the King, Sultan Mizan of Terengganu, has a completely different understanding of the state constitution and that there is a nil-to-zero chance of him agreeing to the appointment of Datuk Seri Idris Jusoh as the Mentri Besar. The palace position of “anyone but Idris’’ has hardened in the past 48 hours, prompted by the feeling that Barisan Nasional was using the media to paint the intervention by the state’s Regency Advisory Council as unconstitutional. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s statement that appointing anyone but Idris as the MB as unconstitutional has made the hawks in the Sultan’s camp more strident. There are a knot of issues why the palace and Idris are as different as light and day. The royal household feels that Idris in his first term as the MB was not respectful to the Sultan and less responsive to the needs of the family. On the flip side, Idris supporters say that his job as the state’s chief executive is to be fair to everyone. Also even after the Sultan assumed his duties as the King, he continued to brief the Regency Advisory Council on state matters. So the issue of disrespecting the Sultan did not arise. The government’s position on the state constitution is that once the majority of the state assembly makes clear its choice of the MB, the palace has to endorse it. So now that 22 state assemblymen are backing Idris, he has to be installed as the MB. Gani Patail said the state constitution and principles of parliamentary democracy state that a person with the majority support among elected assemblymen had to be appointed the mentri besar. That was why the Raja of Perlis could choose to appoint Dr Mat Isa Sabu as MB of Perlis over the PM’s choice, Datuk Seri Shahidan Kassim. Because Mat Isa had the support of the majority of assemblymen. The Malaysian Insider has learnt that the palace and the advisory council are interpreting the law differently. They believe that the question is not whether the MB has the support of elected assemblymen but of the political party he represents, and the people of Terengganu. That is why newly-appointed Mentri Besar Datuk Ahmad Isa has been stressing that he has the support of majority of Umno members in 7 of the 8 divisions. There is no provision to call a referendum of the people and there is every chance that Ahmad Isa will not survive a motion of no confidence when the state assembly convenes. The assembly has to sit by May 13. If a no-confidence vote is passed, Ahmad Isa could step down. This would then present the regency advisory council with two options: appoint another mentri besar or dissolve the state assembly and call for new elections. The Malaysian Insider understands that the palace is prepared to break the impasse by appointing a compromise candidate as the MB – anyone except Idris. But if this is not possible, the royalty believe that allowing the Terengganu people to speak through new elections may be the solution. New polls may not be advantageous to an Idris-led BN team, not with the largely-Malay electorate knowing the depth of dislike the ruler has for him. It is not likely that PAS can wrest control of the state but BN could lose their comfortable two-thirds majority. Within the corridors of power in government, Abdullah knows that he is caught between a rock and hard place. He knows that Umno members expect him to be their protector, and to come out strong. More so when it involves someone who has been loyal to him like Idris Jusoh. Then there is the issue of law and royal activitism. He and other Umno leaders know that several royal households – sensing that the centre is not strong – are flexing their muscles. While this is acceptable when it falls within the confines of the law, submitting to the will of the royalty on this issue will set a dangerous precedent, they feel. An Umno official said: “Malaysia is not an absolute monarchy. We have to respect the constitutional role of Malay rulers but they have to respect the rule of law.’’ So it looks like Abdullah will have to dig in his heels and consider going to court to make clear the limits of what the royal household can do in Terengganu. Also, Abdullah has to tread gingerly because Sultan MIzan is also the Malaysian King. Push too hard and the Malay ground may interpret it as a sign of disrespect for an institution which they respect. What he can ill-afford when he is rebuilding his strength within Umno is a battle on another front. - THE MALAYSIAN INSIDER
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The Blogs 
If all 23 BN supporters of Idris want to resign, they have to do so quickly instead of merely threatening to resign. What could our PM do about this? Nothing much except pray.