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Predictions are aplenty but at the end of the day, it will be the Bagan Pinang voters who will decide today, writes ZUBAIDAH ABU BAKAR. Zubaidah Abu Bakar, New Straits Times
LISTENING to the chatter of Barisan Nasional politicians who have been on the Bagan Pinang campaign trail, it is hard not to conclude that today's by-election is a done deal.
Most politicians from the coalition are confident of retaining the seat because Bagan Pinang is considered an Umno stronghold.
They said the popularity of the BN candidate, Umno loyalist Tan Sri Mohd Isa Abdul Samad, among locals is a plus point.
They are also confident that Isa's track record in Umno and the government could bring back the BN supporters who voted for the opposition in the March 2008 general election.
Isa is up against Pas candidate Zulkefly Mohamad Omar.
The strong support for Isa's candidacy, particularly from the Teluk Kemang Umno division, which he chairs, has apparently reduced internal sabotage to nought.
As has been the case in the past, a by-election in a constituency packed with so many supporters always works to BN's advantage.
And with the BN election machinery well-oiled, it is only natural for BN politicians to think the outcome will favour them.
"We have done all we can. Voters will come out and vote for us," said a confident Isa after attending a wedding reception at the Bagan Pinang hall just 24 hours before the start of polling.
The by-election was called following the death of BN assemblyman Azman Mohd Noor on Sept 4. Azman had, in March last year, defeated Ramli Ismail of Pas, by 2,333 votes.
The state constituency has 13,664 voters of whom 8,577 or 62.77 per cent are Malays, 1,498 (10.96 per cent) Chinese, 2,834 (20.74 per cent) Indians and 755 (5.54 per cent) others.
Analyst Ong Kian Ming, who specialises in electoral politics, was quoted as saying that 63 per cent of the Malay votes then went to BN. This excluded the postal votes. BN picked up 42 per cent of the non-Malay votes.
Bagan Pinang is an Umno stronghold situated within the Teluk Kemang parliamentary constituency, which is represented by Parti Keadilan Rakyat's Datuk Kamarul Baharin Abbas.
Apart from Bagan Pinang, Umno also won the neighbouring Linggi state seat in last year's general election while Pakatan Rakyat controls three other state seats in Teluk Kemang -- Chuah (PKR), Lukut (DAP) and Port Dickson (PKR).
Against this scenario, the opposition pushed hard, especially in the last lap of campaigning. Their bigwigs, led by opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, had been appealing to voters to elect the opposition to the state legislative assembly.
Some political watchers believe the opposition desperately wants to wrest control of the seat from BN to breach the BN "tidal wall" in Negri Sembilan that it failed to do last year.
That opposition tidal wave in last year's general election did not hit Negri Sembilan hard enough, allowing BN to continue ruling the state with a simple majority.
Other observers do not think so. They say Pakatan leaders are looking at a different perspective since they had known all along they could not wrest the seat from BN.
The opposition, these observers say, had been using the eight days of campaigning as a platform to educate national voters on their struggle, preparing for the next general election which must be held by 2013.
Ibrahim Suffian, the director of public opinion research organisation Merdeka Center, said the aggressive efforts of the Pakatan leaders in the last 48 hours of campaigning would have little impact.
"Most voters have already decided who to vote for," says Ibrahim.
Dr Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia has this to say: "Pas is the underdog, thus there is no pressure on its part to win in Umno's home ground."
This could be the case as opposition leaders like Pas president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang and DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng have conceded that the by-election is an uphill battle.
Pas director of operations and vice-president Salahuddin Ayub might have sounded a little optimistic when he said that change could be felt and Pas was confident there will be some impact.
The fact is the opposition's focus on Isa's past has not brought the desired effects.
Other factors are also at play and could also very much be influenced by voter turnout -- expected to be more than 80 per cent.
A high number of spoilt votes and unreturned ballots could tip the balance.
At the last general election, there were 384 spoilt ballots and an unusually large number of 668 unreturned ballots in Bagan Pinang, the highest among Negri Sembilan's 36 state constituencies.
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