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By LIM MUN FAH/Translated by SOONG PHUI JEE/Sin Chew Daily)

With further interpretation from various parties, the confusion and some doubts over the amendment to the 1895 Constitution have been clarified.

According to State Tourism and Domestic Trade Committee Chairman Hoo Seong Chang, the amemdment only involves the last two years of the state legislative assembly's five-year term. In other words, when a seat is vacant in the first three years of the new term for the state legislative assembly, the provision of an immediate by-election still remains the same.

There will be a difference only when the seat is vacant during the last two years of the term.

Before the amendment, if a state assemblyman suddenly dies, resigns or being dismissed during the remaining two years of his term of office, which leads to a vacancy, no by-election will be held for it.

After the amendment, if the vacancy may affect the status of the state assembly's majority party, the State Assembly Speaker may write to the Elelction Commission based on this reason to request for a by-election to be held within 60 days.

Presently, BN's regime is very stable as it owns 50 seats in the Johor State Assembly while Pakatan Rakyat owns only six. It is almost sure that there will be no necessary for the Johor State Assembly Speaker to invoke the new provision to write to the EC and request for a by-election even if a state seat is vacant during the remaining two years of the term.

If that's the case, then what for amending the Constitution?

Hoo said that the state government made the amendment based on the long-term vision. Perhaps, we could see that although Johor is the strongest bastion for BN, BN is still "frightened of" the next general elections.

For example, assuming that BN wins 29 seats in the next general elections while Pakatan Rakyat gains 27 seats, BN may form only a simple majority government. In such a situation, it will be a test if two of the BN seats suddenly turns vacant and leads to a deadlock in which both BN and Pakatan are holding 27 seats.

Let's continue to make the following assumptions:

1. According to the Constitution, if the deadlock happens during the first three years of the new term of office, by-elections are required to fill the vacancies. If BN is able to keep the two seats after the by-elections, it can stay in power. If it loses the two seats, it will have to hand over the power. If it wins one of the seats but loses the other one, it may lead to another deadlock in which BN and Pakatan hold equal seats in the state assembly. And if they are unable to form a unity government, the BN government may seek a royal assent from the Sultan to dissolve the state legislative assembly and elect a new government through a general elections.
2. According to the original Constitution, if the deadlock happens during the fourth or fifth year of the new term of office, there will be no by-election for the vacancies. In order to break the deadlock, the BN government can only seek a royal assent from the Sultan to dissolve the state legislative assembly and elect a new government through a general elections. But after the amendment to the Constitution, the State Assembly Speaker may write to the EC and request for by-elections to fill the vacancies with the reason that the vacancies may affect the status of the majority party.

Obviously, the amendment to the Johor Constitution is a precautious step taking by the BN government. After all, when it comes to a deadlock, reducing instability and having local by-elections is more in line with the ruling party's interests compared to a comprehensive general elections. 

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