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Manek Urai - A lesson for all parties PDF Print
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Wednesday, 15 July 2009 11:37

By Dr. Rafick

1. It is official; PAS won MU with a majority of 65 votes. Not much but that is enough to clinch the title of a winner. What is important here is that the voters are split right down in the middle. In a Malay dominated territory, the Malays are split into almost two equal halves. 

2. The result of this by election is important. If it is extrapolated generally across the nation, it would mean that the entire Malays population is divided. The ethnic Chinese and the Indians basically will decide the final swing of the votes. If a general election is called tomorrow, it would means that BN will lose badly.

3. Looking at the campaigning that took place in MU, it appears that BN or UMNO did not do the campaigns but the campaign was actually conducted by the Federal Government. The media machinery of the government played a significant role. Literally, the entire Cabinet and the ministries went down to campaign. The government even promised the people of MU a new bridge. That shows the level of desperation in the BN camp. Racial sentiment and fear tactics was also strongly played by BN. They even had to resort seeking Lee Kuan Yew help in campaigning. Maybe this is the precursor to stronger relationship between Malaysia and Singapore.

4. For the PAS supporters they must be wondering what went wrong. It does not take a genius to figure it out. The promised of the bridge, the gifts in the forms of bicycle, school bags and various other goodies for the poor came from the welfare departments which only surfaced during elections had their impact. I guess the sweetest deal being financial incentives that was provided by some friendly parties to UMNO. Reports surfaces that people were being given between RM50 to RM300 for their support. Only God knows the truth.

5. To a certain extent, PAS is equally responsible for their decreasing support. Their internal bickering between the various factions and their splitting views of their Unity Government probably contributed to the decreasing margin. With 87% turnout, PAS inability to secure only 65 votes shows that there is something seriously wrong with their election machinery.

Read more at: http://rights2write.wordpress.com/2009/07/14/manek-urai-%E2%80%93-a-lesson-for-all-parties/

Comments (8)Add Comment
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written by KHAIRUL HISHAM HASSAN, July 15, 2009 11:42:33
NOTE: Repeat posting removed - nk
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written by ibabonma, July 15, 2009 11:46:45
Dr. Rafick,

How to analyse the result based on doubtful statistic? You really believe almost 80% cast their votes in that by election?

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written by ibabonma, July 15, 2009 11:49:26
I meant 90%.
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written by clarity, July 15, 2009 11:54:14
Now that BN have lost, does it mean that there will be no bridge, no bicycles, no school bags etc? As a responsible govt. it is their duty to develop equally all states. Blackmail is a serious offence.
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written by POKKU, July 15, 2009 12:38:25
This weekend, Malaysian will be able to enjoy a football match Malaysia Vs MU. we will witness our local boy who is the underdog goes against the big name the like of Ryan Gigg, Roonie, Van Der Sar ...etc

Yesterday we witness an election of Malaysia vs MU where Malaysia Field the big name such as DPM, Home Minister, MITTI ...etc.

Yesterday's result, Malaysia lost with small margin but still loose. this weekend, I believe Malaysia will again loose.

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written by Aria, July 15, 2009 13:27:53
Until that realism comes that what PAS and Pakatan stand for are completely different, like oil and water they cannot be mixed. This union between PAS and Pakatan is pulling both parties down, and they should not even try to pull themselves together, otherwise the results of the next election will be the end of Pakatan. By PAS joining either Pakatan or UMNO, it is finished as a political party, this is because what PAS stands for is very unique and will not fit any other parties’ ideology. Pakatan should agree to disagree with PAS and only agree to work together to bring down their common foe. Both Pakatan and PAS should agree on the area that they will stand for in an election and also agree that both will not force their party’ ideologies onto the other.
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written by chiongguo, July 15, 2009 13:54:56
Any theory or postulate has merit or higher credibility when there is predictive value. Of all the theories of why PAS lost so much support I think Shalehudin said it best :

http://shalehudin.********.com/2009/07/manek-urai-pas-kalah-jika-pengundi-luar.html

He predicted the result and even predicted that BN would bribe the voters. I don't have all the numbers but I have a deep suspicion that the numbers don't add up.

I do not believe that PAS lost any support nor do I believe umno had gained in their support.

Manik Urai profile do not match the the nation's demography and the result there CANNOT be extented to the rest of malaysia. Manik Urai is mostly rural in nature and the educational level I believe is also not as high.

If I were najib I wouldn't be popping any champaign too soon.
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written by Kathy, July 15, 2009 16:44:07
I reckon this split in votes indicates the split in PAS. Maybe the PR alliance should now say adios to PAS and try to get the Indian splinter groups to join them.
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