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Welsh on P-36 Kuala Terengganu by-election PDF Print
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Monday, 19 January 2009 23:14

www.malaysiakini.com

Light and darkness: Reflections on KT
Bridget Welsh | January 19, 2009

Both the Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat packed up quickly after the Kuala Terengganu by-election was won decisively by PAS on Saturday (January 17).

The opposition’s 2,631 majority builds the much-needed momentum for Pakatan after it failed to deliver on its promise of taking over power on September 16 last year.

The results also point to endemic problems in Barisan Nasional (BN), which are only likely to continue as the blame game has begun. “Kuala Terang Anu” is shining light on the strengths and weaknesses of both contesting sides, with the opposition’s fortunes brightening.

Chinese in KT more conservative

The focus of media analyses have centred on the Chinese voters. These voters were seen as crucial bellwethers of the opposition’s appeal across races and the electoral viability of weakened non-Malay component BN parties, particularly MCA.

The latter is claiming victory, and Pakatan’s component parties are quietly on the defensive. What happened?

First of all, it is important to understand that not all Chinese in Malaysia are the same. The dominance of the ethnic lens in politics obscures important regional and generational differences.

Most of the Chinese in KT are much more conservative than their counterparts on the West Coast. Many are members of MCA, which has a well-oiled regional machine in this east coast capital. As such, their support of the opposition has traditionally been much more tempered than elsewhere.

Coupled with this conservatism is a deep pragmatism of working in a BN-led state. Many KT Chinese worried about possible recriminations if they did not support the BN, as the message of the community being targeted hit home.

Not only were KT Chinese worried about financial losses, but there was concern that on the eve of the UMNO party elections (where racial chest-thumping is the norm), the party would put KT Chinese in its sights.

Fear did resonate. Yet, so did the rewards and incentives as the over RM35 million of promises sweetened the pot for needy Chinese schools and projects.

Local concerns were crucial, as many Chinese KT voters stationed outside did not come back for the polls. Chinese voter turnout dropped by 10% with more than 1,000 Chinese voters not returning. Disproportionally, these voters vote for the opposition, reflecting the national mood among many Chinese Malaysians.

The opposition also miscalculated, failing to bring in their big guns in the last days of the campaign.

Senior DAP and PKR leaders returned early, believing that their missions were done. They forgot that the lesson they benefitted from in March 2008, that campaign momentum can change and those that gain are those that stay on the ground consistently.

READ MORE HERE: http://dinmerican.wordpress.com

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written by KingSolomon, January 19, 2009 23:44:39
The opposition parties must settle the contentious huddud laws issue. Non-muslims are not only frightened of the chopping of limps and stoning to death penalties; they are also afraid of the islamic inheritance law, body-snatching and conversion out of the islamic faith. Muslim women and girls do not like the idea of wearing the burqah. These are genuine concerns which must be addressed.
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written by cahaya, January 20, 2009 00:10:02
Analysing the KT voters and their supposed votes is difficult, if not impossible, due to so many unknown and unexplained factors (unusual entries in the electoral list of voters, widespread bribing, verbal threats, road blocks on election day, etc). How many votes were actually cast by KT residents? How many by people who came from outside KT (assuming they were registered as voters in KT)? How many by other people whoever they were? Voter turnout was lower than locals expected (observers on the ground), but the final voter turnout was reported as close to 80%. Most exit polls showed PAS leading by a wide margin, but the final difference was a small margin.

We really cannot, and probably should not, attempt a detailed analysis of the KT results. The only thing we know for sure is the conclusion: In spite of everything that happened, the PAS candidate still managed to win, so now the Pakatan Rakyat opposition side has one more member in Parliament!
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written by Proarte, January 20, 2009 00:12:40
The Hudud and Qisas issue is no longer an issue. As the redoubtable Raja Petra said, itu cerita lama dan isu basi. It has always been used as a 'Paper Tiger' by PAS for political posturing or as a political bargaining chip.

DAP cleverly was able to defuse this contentious issue forever by getting PAS to agree that any unconstitutional issues such as Hudud and Qisas cannot be part of Pakatan policy if DAP rejects it. Pakatan will adopt a consensus approach to governance it was agreed.

DAP was able to gain PAS trust by campaigning wholeheartedly for the PAS candidate as there was the perception on the ground that the Chinese were 'Kingmakers'. On the PAS side, because of their desperation to wrest the seat from UMNO, made them ready for compromise on the Hudud and Qisas issue.

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written by cahaya, January 20, 2009 07:35:08
delCarpo and other MT readers, she wrote more.
Above was only the first page of 5 pages by Bridget Welsh, a political analyst who went personally to KT to observe the by-election. You should read the rest of her article at Din Merican’s website (or at Malaysiakini). A helpful article because we learn how foreigners observing at KT saw the event.

Besides saying the Chinese are conservative, she also noticed the decisive Malay swing, that young Malays backed PAS while women voted BN, and that this defeat signals Najib’s public legitimacy gap ("he does not appear to have the support of the majority of Malaysians".) She made some good points, though she missed the widespread bribing.

Even a foreigner can see that “election losses do not bode well for a rising national leader” (you know who).
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written by ahmadneil, January 20, 2009 12:04:09
'Kuaratay'RPK!
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