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Keeping the BN afloat PDF Print
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Thursday, 15 January 2009 01:07

The one-billion-ringgit question is that if sizeable numbers of Malays continue to reject Umno in the Malay heartland, will the non-Malays come to Umno's rescue again? Will they join their cousins elsewhere, who would likely vote even more strongly against the BN come the next elections?

By Wong Chin Huat, The Nut Graph

I ARGUED previously that the Kuala Terengganu by-election is a battle in which Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has little to gain and much to lose.

A real turning point would happen only if Umno can seriously bring down PAS's support to below 45% among Malay Malaysians and 25% among non-Malay Malaysians. These figures are the estimated average levels in the 55 peninsular seats with 75% or more Malay Malaysian constituents. Without mysterious developments in the electoral process, such as the record 98% voter turnout in the provisional result of the 2004 polls, this looks almost impossible now.

However, if PAS wins this battle with the same 628-votes margin that the Barisan Nasional (BN) won by in March 2008, PAS, Pakatan Rakyat and numerous bloggers will proclaim this swing of 1,256 votes as the beginning of Najib's end. They will carry this euphoria to Sarawak, which they hope will be the sixth Pakatan Rakyat state. As the saying goes, politics is all about perception.

Who else stands a chance to be the winner from this fight? As counter-intuitive as it sounds, I would say the MCA, Gerakan, the MIC, the People's Progressive Party (PPP), the BN, and ultimately Umno itself.

READ MORE HERE

Comments (10)Add Comment
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written by boeytahan, January 15, 2009 02:01:56
My comments here....

Eversince BN lost it's 2/3 majority last March is significantly pronounced their downfall all the way back from Permatang Pauh and forthcoming by elections. Tainted PM to be and BN still in the state of denial will eventually whitwash those in powers into the drains. Even Mahathir can forsee it! To me, thanks to our Mahathir for setting up of the cyber world in our part of universe or otherwise our MSM would distort every article that is not worth reading.

I predict that before the next GE any by-election that comes by would be won by PR handsomely. Wait till Sarawak hold their state election and my prediction is that BN and Taib Mahmud would be on their knees.
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written by SamSan, January 15, 2009 07:47:59
The real reason for UMNO's decline is because it is becoming more difficult to manipulate votes and it is becoming more problematic to sneak in the phantom voters as people are becoming more vigil and more and more people don't want phantom voters on their behalf.
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written by asguard, January 15, 2009 08:42:23
I sure don't want that tiga suku UMNO to rule forever, they are fit to be in mental ward! Sent all of power crazy idiots to the mental ward hospital!
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written by Tompios, January 15, 2009 08:48:33
Hopefully, light will spark in Kuala Terengganu with the bright rays. Yes, I want to hear with my eyes and to see with my ears all actions and words of sadness of the UMNO defeated ny PAKATAN RAKYAT.
UMNO hari mu dihitung semakin pendek. Hukuman Karma C4 sudah bermula!
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written by harmanamri, January 15, 2009 09:39:20
The stakes are too high. So Najib will make sure that BN wins, by hook or by crook. All the dirty tricks in the UMNO/BN repertoire will be in play.
So watch out, Pakatan Rakyat... be extra-vigilant.
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written by Rainbowseahorse, January 15, 2009 10:05:25
I am still looking at around 3,500 majority win for PAS.
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written by exzonerator, January 15, 2009 13:19:53
Change the Monsoon Cup to Tsunami Cup.
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written by Proud_2b_Malaysian, January 15, 2009 13:27:17
We shall soon see the results. Things may not be as simple as they appear in the analysis. What does the large police presence have to do with the by-election? Food for thought. The finish line is drawing near and the votes will be in soon.
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written by savemalaysia, January 15, 2009 18:28:15
UMNO and BN will continue the slippery road to obscurity so long as it refuses to change and reinvent themselves. They are still playing an old game on a new playing field and of course, UMNO and BN will forever face defeats from now on. Serve you arrogant, abusive and corrupted numbed skulls right.
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written by kclim2, January 15, 2009 21:46:48
A win for PAS is a win for all Malaysian! Pls vote PAS!
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