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CITIGROUP: Malaysia likely to face technical recession

Posted by admin

Tuesday, 13 January 2009 15:46

Citigroup Global Market forecast that Malaysia will go into a technical recession likely in fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009.

It also downgraded its gross domestic forecast (GDP) for 2009 to 0.5 percent from 3.1 percent.

The government official GDP forecast is 3.5 percent.

In a media briefing on Malaysia's Market Outlook for 2009 here today, it said that there could be a cut between 50-75 basis point in overnight policy rate in the first quarter of 2009.

According to Citigroup, GDP for 2010 is estimated at 4.2 percent, while fiscal balance is forecast at -5 percent in 2009 and -4.5 percent in 2010.

GDP for quarter four 2008 is forecast at 2.0 percent.

Despite the downgrade forecast by Citigroup, Second Finance Minister Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop was earlier reported as saying that the government was confident that the country would not be experiencing a technical recession this year.

He said the country's economic growth was expected to stay positive during the period from January to June this year based on the equity of the financial system which exceeds 13 per cent, total liquidity which is in billions of ringgit and the low non performing loan (NPL) rate which is at about 2.5 per cent. -- BERNAMA

Comments (19) Add Comment

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written by ahmadneil, January 13, 2009 15:53:50

Tese thick skin and pea size brain don't accept what other said.They only think of ways to bluff the rakyat.Only when this country goes to the dogs, will they be satisfied.

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written by Rainbowseahorse, January 13, 2009 15:53:56

Conclusion?

Malaysia needs more by-elections to keep the economy going and for a fairer distribution of the nationâ€™s wealth.

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written by blackpea, January 13, 2009 15:55:32

B arang N aik and their cronies only know how to tell lies to the Malaysians, how do they know what is recession. Recession is not in their vocabulary. They only know how to rob the public monies to line their deep pockets.

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written by Zym Zym, January 13, 2009 15:59:47

Deny deny deny. That's what BN is good at; always in the state of denial! Time to go, BN. Give Pakatan Rakyat a chance.

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written by ahmadneil, January 13, 2009 16:01:01

And with our playboy who only knows how to wave keris and saiful Anwar,he got no time to chart the course of our country.With another imminent defeat in KT,coming at a odd time,he will be more worried about getting his post as PM,rather than getting our country back on track.

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written by ahmadneil, January 13, 2009 16:02:59

Guys,get out from the stock market.you only go in when Anwar becomes PM!

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written by ahmadneil, January 13, 2009 16:06:14

I prefer they all go and play more badminton becos after all the know nuts about economy!

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written by leeum, January 13, 2009 16:17:13

I'm more inclined to believe Citigroup in this one than our FM2's forecast.

Where is the economic growth going to come from? Our major trade partners are all countries who are already in recession: Japan, Singapore, the United States, the European Union. We're not likely to see increased demand there.

Domestically, people are getting increasingly worried about the state of the economy, their finances and their jobs. We already hear of plant shutdowns and layoffs across many sectors of the economy. So, we're not going to see huge domestic demand growth either.

What is the basis of this optimistic forecast? The only source of extra money to be pumped into the economy that I can think of is increasing the money supply, either by printing more ringgit or "freeing up" the money "trapped" in the EPF. And that road leads to danger, particularly sine we know for a fact that most money "invested" by the government is generally not allocated efficiently or profitably.

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written by axppin, January 13, 2009 16:27:23

Call it technical recession ka, technical correction ka, market adjustment ka...so whattt???!! These are just syok sendiri terms used by the so called 'financial experts' just to confuse the people. When pressed, even these experts cannot really explain the meaning to us the ordinary rakyat. What makes it worse is when politicians perasan that they are also the experts. And sing like one. Tak payah la. Go sing your heart out to the women at the karaokes lagi bagus. At least we know that is well within your expertise. And count the days till you are voted out whilst you are there.

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written by LKO, January 13, 2009 16:40:42

I would take Citi's forecast with a pinch of salt. A big pinch, but not as big as the Finance Ministers forecast. smilies/cry.gif

If Citi's forecast is so good, they won't be in trouble in the first place.

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written by DreamLady, January 13, 2009 16:49:03

what do Badawi and Najib care whether the country is dead broke or otherwise !! These two irresponsible persons enjoy indulging in draining the nation's coffer during the campaigning season, OVER A MERE SEAT!!!That is a barometer to judge how smart and dedicated they are to manage the country's interest.

Technical recession or no recession, is none of their concern, as long as they have the right to dip their filthy hands in the cookies jar is what matter most to them!!

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written by temenggong, January 13, 2009 16:58:45

Our people in the MoF are the 'Kuala Clowns' the foreign media is talking about. We said six months ago that the country and the world faces a recession and RM 7 billion investments is not enough! This amount should have been spent wisely in June 2008 to forestal the then impending recession!

Now any amount of investment spending is not enough. Now what is required is a restructuring of the economy; repatriation of a half million foreign workers! Lets see how long the kuala clowns take to realise this!

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written by carribeanking7, January 13, 2009 17:42:18

Dear greenhorn finance minister, and puppet 2nd finance minister, technical recession is defined as at least two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction.

Malaysian export growth is highly dependent on demand from the US but the outlook for the worlds largest economy does not look good as chances are that the subprime upheaval is not over yet and is likely to get worse- on top of this trade with US is already slowing down and you clowns are talking about boycotting US.

So don't talk poppycock to the rakyat, and pretend to have the predictive abilities of nostradamus- kebodohan terserlah.

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written by SocratesI, January 13, 2009 17:43:15

Rainbowseahorse, You got to spell it Buy-Election or else the goodies won't get handed out by these Lanun called Barisan Najis just as Soiled Leg's video performance is a result of his Buy-Erection Barisan Najis & UMNOputras infamous for this sort of thing

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written by shamadz72, January 13, 2009 20:20:10

And we still have a bunch of jokers lead by Mr Tony Fernandez who think that we will need another new sparkling airport which is 7km away from the existing under capacity airport. Tony, if your idea is a brilliant idea, go and invest using your own money lah and don't use EPF money to do it. Put your own money where your mouth is!

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written by sydput, January 13, 2009 21:59:08

citigroup, a bankrupt bank, telling us what to expect and to do? Forget it.Anybody could have made that comment. It is just like RBS, another bankrupt bank informing the singaporeans their dollars will drop, a few days ago.Don't take them seriously. We all know that there is a downturn. It is only the severity that we are unsure of.

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written by MalaysianFirst, January 14, 2009 05:16:30

BN being very irresponsible telling us that we are somehow protected against the global recession. For heaven's sake, please be honest for once. We don't have to be rocket scientists to know what's troubling the economy. Most of our major trading partners are already bleeding and you are still saying we're okay?

Sure, our country is not exactly doomed, but we WILL be hit by the global tsunami. My business is already down 25% and my forecast is further business decline. On the cards is downsizing and other cost-cutting decisions. It's a heartbreaking exercise, but inevitable. If the recession receeds in time, fine. If not, I'll have to retrench the company.

So don't give me that shit about a technical, or mechanical, or scientific recession. Even a child knows what it is. Just focus on immediate remedial actions to help local businessmen tie over this period of low income over the next 2 years. Until today, I have not heard one word from the fugging BN government as to how it will help us businessmen. All it has to say is only "We are okay". We are NOT okay. You still want me to teach you how to help create some economic stimulus? Are you a bunch of useless fools or what? Use your fugging brains!

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written by Rainbowseahorse, January 14, 2009 12:30:41

SocratesI,

Oh yah...Buy-Election!...as in UMNO's suddenly realizing that many communities are in dire need of so many basic facilities and amenities and start doling out funds left, right, front, & back......Yes, I like that phrase! smilies/grin.gif