While Chinese voters appear to hold the deciding votes in the Kuala Terengganu by-election, it would be wrong to play down the importance of Malay voters who make up the majority of the electorate there, writes ZUBAIDAH ABU BAKAR
IN a scenario of Malay voters being split between Umno and Pas in places like Terengganu, it has always been thought that the Chinese, usually a small percentage, were the king-makers.
Political parties involved in this crucial but still unpredictable Kuala Terengganu by-election campaign share this opinion, so much so that their heavyweights and foot soldiers are flooding the Bandar state constituency, where Chinese voters are concentrated.
Kuala Terengganu's Chinese voters must be thinking Chinese New Year has come early for them with the kind of activities taking place these days, from free dinners to handouts of mandarin oranges.
Kampung Cina, in particular, is a hive of activity. The community here appears to be enjoying the special attention it is getting from political parties' members canvassing for votes. But whether their votes on Jan 17 will go to the candidates these political leaders represent remains anybody's guess.
This is because more than 50 per cent of Kuala Terengganu's Chinese voters are said to be members of at least nine Chinese guilds and associations, and they are known to be fence-sitters, voting on the issues, especially on the health of the economy and the business climate.
Chinese make up 11 per cent or 8,735 of Kuala Terengganu's 80,229 voters.
The MCA reportedly has 5,000 members here; its representative, Toh Chin Yaw, won his Bandar seat, the only Barisan Nasional seat in Kuala Terengganu, with a majority 1,612 votes in March.
Gerakan and DAP are not significant.
But winning over the hearts and minds of the Malays is equally crucial in Kuala Terengganu, where the country's changed political landscape has placed a large number of Malay voters in the fence-sitter category.
According to opposition estimates, 20 per cent of Kuala Terengganu's Malay voters are fence-sitters, including the civil servants.
Malay voters make up 88 per cent of the electorate. Slightly more than 25,000 are Umno members, 9,000 are Pas members, and a couple of hundred are with Parti Keadilan Rakyat.
While last year's "political tsunami" was attributed to the shift of support of Chinese and Indian voters from the BN to the opposition, the fact that Malay voters too moved away from their traditional support for Umno and Pas should not be taken lightly in Kuala Terengganu.
A small but significant number of Malays seem to have turned to Parti Keadilan Rakyat, and they are also warming to the DAP.
Malay-based organisations backed by professionals and former Umno leaders have also emerged, all because there are Malays who are no longer content to associate themselves with either Umno or Pas.
Not to be missed out are the non-partisan voters who loathe the mainstream media, choosing instead to click on websites for alternative news portals and blogs.
These groups are also Kuala Terengganu voters, and they need to be wooed.
"The late Datuk Razali Ismail won not because of the Chinese voters but the fence-sitters," says one Umno Youth campaigner.
"BN's victory is still highly dependent on the weaknesses in the Pakatan Rakyat states."
Razali, who was appointed deputy education minister after he won the parliamentary seat by a 628-vote majority in the March 8, 2008 general election, died on Nov 28.
He had secured 32,562 votes, defeating Pas candidate Mohamed Sabu (31,934) and Independent Maimun Yusof (689).
Another campaign worker urged Umno to strive hard to draw members of the defunct Parti Semangat 46 to its side.
"They are former Umno members who did not rejoin Umno, nor did they join Pas. One way to woo them is to get help for former Semangat 46 leaders," says a former Umno member, who is now partyless.
Most fence-sitters are also voters under 40 years old, and they account for almost 50 per cent of Kuala Terengganu voters.
In three Malay-majority voting stations -- Cabang Tiga, Hiliran Masjid and Tok Ku in Bandar, where BN lost in March -- campaigners face an uphill task.
"The fishermen there are traditionally hardcore Pas supporters, so our target is to get close to the younger set of voters," says an Umno member from Kedah.
In the by-election, which will see a three-cornered fight among BN's Datuk Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh, Pas' Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut and Independent candidate Azharuddin Mamat @ Adam, the candidates' personalities count.
"This comes first, followed by the struggle of the political parties and influence of party leaders," says Terengganu Pas commissioner Datuk Mustafa Ali.
BN shares this sentiment, judging by the concerns raised by Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak over perceptions that the BN candidate is an "elitist" and out of touch with the simple Kuala Terengganu voters.
"We must remember that this is a kampung atmosphere," Najib emphasised when launching the party's machinery on Monday night.
"The people here do not care how highly educated you are as they put a premium on how courteous and approachable you are."
Kuala Terengganu may have received city status and the constituency categorised as "urban" by the Election Commission, but its voters are not urbane, nor do they have a "city mentality".
Humility is what they are looking for in their new wakil rakyat.
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