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Tough times ahead - both economic and political PDF Print E-mail
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Monday, 05 January 2009 09:45

In his press interviews so far, Najib has made all the right noises about Umno having to “reinvent itself to stay relevant” or that the party “has to recognise that Malaysia is getting increasingly race blind”. But you wouldn’t know that from watching the party.

Business Times

2009 will see the financial crisis impacting the real economy, with the only good news being that Malaysia is unlikely to slip into recession.

Growth last year in real gross domestic product (GDP) terms was probably at the high end of 5 per cent, and the consensus estimate among private economists is for Malaysia to grow 2-3 per cent in 2009. However, there are a few who think growth could be flat.

Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak has said that the government is prepared to step in with another financial boost if the situation deteriorates. This is apart from the RM7 billion (S$2.93 billion) spending package announced last year.

Since no government in the world seems worried about budget deficits right now, Najib’s pledge could well be necessary given that the country’s macro- economic indicators are all heading south.

Exports, industrial production and tourist arrivals are all in decline against a backdrop of increased capital flight as foreigners flee Malaysian assets.

Given the portents, it’s likely that the central bank will cut rates further, perhaps by as much as 100 basis points over the year. The gloomy economic outlook will be compounded by higher political temperatures.

In March, Najib, 55, is expected to become the new president of Umno and prime minister when incumbent Abdullah Ahmad Badawi steps down.

The new premier will take over in very trying times with a resurgent opposition and a political climate that seems beset with problems of race and religion.

He will have to balance championing Malay interests against governing multiracial Malaysia, and it isn’t at all clear if he can pull it off given the increasingly strident noises emanating from Umno vis-a-vis Malay rights.

More to the point, it isn’t clear if Umno really wants to reform itself from a narrow, sectarian party to a more inclusive one that caters – or seems to cater – to all Malaysians.

In his press interviews so far, Najib has made all the right noises about Umno having to “reinvent itself to stay relevant” or that the party “has to recognise that Malaysia is getting increasingly race blind”. But you wouldn’t know that from watching the party.

Perhaps the acid test will come in the party polls in March. Central to the party’s direction going forward is the battle for deputy president who, by convention, becomes deputy prime minister.

The most qualified candidate is obviously International Trade Minister Muhyiddin Yassin but his grassroots appeal isn’t as great as Ali Rustam, the chief minister of Malacca and even Mohamad Muhammad Taib, the Minister for Land and Regional Development.

In a bid to plug Muhyiddin, former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad described the latter two candidates as “jokers” – but the joke could be on him. An outsider could just become Malaysia’s deputy premier if Umno doesn’t get its act together.

The elections will also decide the political future of Khairy Jamaluddin, Abdullah’s son- in-law, who is running for Umno Youth chief against two strong candidates – Dr Mahathir’s son Mukhriz and former Selangor chief minister Khir Toyo. And the talk is that Khir could be surging ahead.

Khairy is much maligned as the architect of his father-in- law’s political downfall but one suspects that he is more sinned against than sinner. It would be a pity if Umno throws out the baby with the bathwater.

Comments (12)Add Comment
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written by DreamLady, January 05, 2009 10:12:21
Time and again, I emphasize the squeaky-clean image the country's PM need to have. If Najib is not willing to do a thorough cleansing of the filth that sticks to him in the form of baggage of scandals, he is going to have a rough and tough time ahead.

Come clean and be transparent in regards of the allegations hurled at him, provide sound and professional investigations into eurocopter scandal, Russian submarine scandals, and to have a retrial of the murder case of late Attantuya with international investigators, and to state how much he has withdrawn rakyat's EPF to solve his problems.... All the investigation results should be published in mass media to satisfy the Malaysians. That is the one and only way Najib has to remove the dark cloud over himself for the rest of his life.
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written by Motherchell, January 05, 2009 10:30:40
Exports, industrial production and tourist arrivals are all in decline against a backdrop of increased capital flight as foreigners flee Malaysian assets.

When the British Govt. arrested Terrorists and gave them due LEGAL process, the World knew they were thinking of the security of its citizens .

What do we have here --- arrests of innocents , gagging of the press , arrests without warrants . In the midst of these Economic shadows comes these "Napoleons " , calling themselves as Leaders , in the financial and political platforms to say they are doing well and singing out figures that is crap to the layman in the street.
In this period of the slump-- what the UMNOPUTRAS are doing is playing poker with our lives and patching their losses that runs to 100s of millions of Ringgit .All this is done with the smiles on MSM their mouthpiece to say all is well !.

If tourism is down , its because of the police state mentality, the World saw what the police did during civil society protests .

What i suggest Malaysia should do is , get our Minister for Newsprint to go to the World's Capitals and speak for Malaysia about what it truly is and answer the questions from the doubtful. Rebut the sensible if he has the bollZ.!!!!
http://sjsandteam.wordpress.com/
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written by Saint, January 05, 2009 10:53:34
A wolf in sheep clothing as KT by-election and "waiting time for PM'.
But once all this is achived, who needs the sheep's cover.
The sharp teeth wil be shown to all who dare.

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written by Arubin, January 05, 2009 11:05:17
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. The leadership contests in UMNO is like the Alien vs Predator movie.

Whoever wins, we lose...
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written by ahmadneil, January 05, 2009 11:05:27
This is just a calm before a perfect storm.With the next leadership ,who have not been tested in these trying time,they have no clue of how to tackle this serious financial crisis.Those foreign investors who have flocked here in numbers before are now having second thoughts of coming here because the gov't policies are not transparent.Issues like NEP,30% equities etc are frightening them away.And another troubling thing is that the image of malaysia is seriously dented in the international arena becos of allegation linking Najib to the murder of the Mongolian model ,Altantuya, and was layer C4.To add salt to the wound,they released the prime suspect in this gruesome murder,Razak Baginda,who did admit that he have screwed Altantuya and was the last person to have seen her alive.It's a insult to the intelligence of all malaysian to hear from our court that he is innocent of this crime.Where have our country gone wrong!It's becos of that Playboy and his Gang who are openly abusing their positions.
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written by savemalaysia, January 05, 2009 11:27:59
Tough times ahead for Malaysia economically and politically because UMNO warlords are concentrating on party positions and devoid of savvy to strengthen the economy. We still see Najis, Mud-yiddin and Mohd Nor Yakup telling Malaysians that the nation will be spared from recession when the signs are already up on the wall that a lot of Malaysian firms are already freezing employment, reducing staff strength, retrenching workers, embarking on austerity drive due to slow export growth and domestic consumption. This govt is always on denial mode and deceptive in nature, so much so that it has no more credibility and integrity.

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written by Bigjoe99, January 05, 2009 11:38:09
Its not that Malaysian are increasingly race blind but the fact is they don't want it to dominate everything they do and it does and will even more if nothing is done about it. Race may be fundamental in our country but no one believes its everything or should be dominating. Allowing it to dominate is a shame, perversion even. Everyone knows it will lead to nowhere and disaster and the worst shame is, there is no reason for it. If we go down because of it, it will be historical shame the future generation will never live it down...
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written by Rainbowseahorse, January 05, 2009 11:57:47
“The most qualified candidate is obviously International Trade Minister Muhyiddin Yassin but his grassroots appeal isn’t as great as Ali Rustam, the chief minister of Malacca and even Mohamad Muhammad Taib, the Minister for Land and Regional Development”.

Really? An ikan masin, a dead chicken, and an OKU as the party deputy president candidates, with the winner becoming Malaysia's Deputy Premier?

Is this all that UMNO has to offer as high caliber, intellectual, credible, and capable Leaders to Malaysia? No wonder our country is fast sliding into the shit hole!
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written by Msian Idol3, January 05, 2009 12:16:10
Fully agreed tough times ahead. Even if there is no economic crisis in the world, Msia due to its lack of meritocracies & crony patronage policies would wallow in its own mud. Discount oil revenues, one would see how great our ministers mismanaged our nation resources in human & raw materials.
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written by cheekhiaw, January 05, 2009 13:19:46
All the decent people in government with any semblance of a conscience should take this opportunity to help get rid of those thieves, liars and murderers. If not for their own sake, at least for the poorest of the country who will be most affected.

With no access to the means to protect their miniscule savings and incomes, inflation caused by government over-issuing money is going to take away whatever little they have.

Living from hand to mouth is no way for a people to uplift themselves or their young. Some may be forced to stop sending their kids to school or get them to help in making a living.

Ensuring the continued education of their young and next generation must be a priority of all in government. It is their and our only hope of a better future.

Whatever they say, that bunch of thieves, liars and murderers had proven over 40 years to be undependable in doing this. Get rid of them.
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written by mikewang, January 05, 2009 14:07:49
UMNO will reform to stay relevant, only after it loses the right to rule.

Let's give them a helping hand this year, starting from Kuala Terengganu.
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written by Futurist, January 05, 2009 21:46:51
Recession? Where? No not here in Malaysia. We the leaders have comfortably hedged ourselves. Says our DPM and FM.
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