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Its capital Kuala Terengganu, an urban seat with a significant Chinese electorate, also stayed with Umno, bucking the trend of urban constituencies nationwide that fell to the opposition.

A recent analysis of the electoral data by political analyst Ong Kian Ming showed that the support for the BN in Terengganu fell by a mere 0.4 per cent in March last year from the 2004 elections.

This was negligible compared with other states like the Federal Territory, which saw a steep 20 per cent plunge.

Terengganu bucked the trend then. Can it repeat its feat on Jan 17? That is when the 80,229 voters will vote in a by-election called after the Umno MP Razali Ismail died in November.

Candidates will register for the ballot tomorrow. Umno is fielding former deputy Home Minister Wan Ahmad Farid Salleh, 46, against Parti Islam SeMalaysia's (Pas) Abdul Wahid Endut, 52.

At least two independents – Isma Airfath Hassanuddin, 38, and one from a small party Angkatan Keadilan Insan Malaysia – have also declared their interest.

The stakes are high. A win for Pas will signal that the opposition is not defeated despite a serious setback when its leader Anwar Ibrahim failed to make good on his threat to topple the government.

“If we win, it will be seen that the BN is the outgoing party, and we are the incoming,” said Pas research centre head Dzulkefly Ahmad.

Anwar is seeking to restart the opposition’s momentum that it can ride to win another possible by-election in Sabah soon, and the Sarawak state elections due in 2011.

Deputy Premier Najib Razak, who heads the Umno election machinery, is in the direct line of fire as it will be a gauge of the acceptability of his leadership as he gears up to become Prime Minister by March.

What was behind the BN’s apparent resilience to the March 2008 tsunami? Being an urban area and a swing seat that has alternated between Umno and Pas since 1986, it was surprising that Kuala Terengganu held up, albeit with a narrow margin.

Ong believes that the high number of new voters in Terengganu helped. The state increased its voter base by 14.4 per cent from 2004 to last year.

This surpassed even industrialised Selangor and was due to an effort by both Umno and Pas to register new voters. It is apparent now that Umno did a better job in Terengganu.

Democratic Action Party MP Liew Chin Tong said many Chinese voters were believed to have been moved to Kuala Terengganu from other parts of the state.

This was one reason the Chinese vote held for the BN.

Dr Dzulkefly also said Pas in Terengganu is less inclusive, and the Chinese “were not impressed” with its leadership.

This faction, led by its president Hadi Awang, had wanted closer ties with Umno after the March general election over fears of waning Malay political clout.

The Chinese vote is crucial as the Malay vote has hardened into equal Umno and Pas camps.

Ong's analysis showed that Pas’ heavy losses in the Chinese polling districts had cost it the seat in the last two elections.

Kuala Terengganu is 87.4 per cent Malay, 11.6 per cent Chinese, 0.7 per cent Indian and 0.3 per cent others.

It is by no means certain that the BN still holds these advantages 10 months after the March election. There is a sense that it has been steadily losing ground, and the heightened Malay rhetoric has spooked the non-Malays.

Ong points out that Umno also needs a very high voter turnout to do well.

As for the candidates, both Pas and Umno's choices are seen as less than ideal.

Abdul Wahid from Pas was picked over another candidate who would have more appeal to the fence-sitters, including the Chinese.

Wan Farid from Umno carries the baggage of being seen as an ally of Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi and his unpopular son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin.

Neither has an obvious advantage, making this a highly unpredictable contest.

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