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According to reliable sources, the BN could lose up to 30 seats in the next state elections, which would mean that Pakatan Rakyat just needs to capture six extra seats to win power, if the elections were held today. Nur Jazlan for The Malaysian Insider
The winds of change are blowing in Sarawak. They are fanning the fire of Dayak nationalism and fuelling increasing Chinese dissatisfaction for the Barisan Nasional government over the state's lethargic economic situation. Even among the ruling Malay Melanau community, there is growing unhappiness over the reluctance of its leader Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud to step down as chief minister after 27 years. For the Dayaks, the animosity towards the old stalwart is even stronger. As a young Kayan waitress I met in a Kuala Lumpur restaurant recently remarked to me: "I don't like Taib Mahmud." She added: "I have to leave my family in Kuching to find work in Kuala Lumpur because there are no jobs available there." Therefore, it’s not surprising that Parti Keadilan Rakyat adviser Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has set his party's sights on capturing Sarawak at the next state elections due in 2011. The once impossible ambition of the state's warring opposition parties to defeat the Barisan Nasional may actually come true with Anwar and PKR. They are hoping to ride the coat tails of Pakatan Rakyat's success in the March 2008 general election and finally remove Taib and consequently Barisan Nasional from power. PKR is expected to continue attacking the record of Taib’s rule especially his family's dominant business interests in the state. It is also expected to manipulate the negative sentiments of the larger Dayak community to remove Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), which is seen to be the vehicle of the smaller sized Malay Melanau community, from power. The election is expected be decided on the issues of the day — considering the similar multi-cultural, multi-religious and multi-ethnic composition of both competing main parties, the ruling PBB and the opposition PKR. Among the issues expected to be aired in the election are denial of land titles to the Dayaks who occupy hundreds of thousands of acres of tribal land settlements in rural Sarawak. The Dayaks have claimed ownership of the land for decades but were denied by the State Constitution after the formation of Malaysia in 1965. Anwar's PKR is promising to award them the land titles if it wins the upcoming elections. PKR's junior partner in Pakatan Rakyat, the DAP, is expected to whip up racial sentiments and focus the hatred of the city-dwelling Chinese against Taib over the issue of extending their property leases which are due soon. The Sarawak Chinese have for a long time worried about the possibility of their livelihood being threatened if their leases are not extended. However, such an event is highly unlikely in Sarawak where the Chinese have benefited from the trust given to them by the Sarawak political leadership to develop the economy of Sarawak. The DAP is promising them freehold land titles as a reward for putting them in power. It would be interesting to see how the newly formed Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission would perceive these political inducements. Sarawak is also fertile ground for Pakatan Rakyat to test its much hyped Bangsa Malaysia values. Sarawak is truly multi-ethnic in nature. The politically dominant Malay Melanaus comprise 20 per cent, the commercially powerful Chinese comprise 30 per cent and the rest is made up of 26 non-Muslim indigenous communities collectively referred to as Dayaks. The ethnic barriers are broken down further by the high percentage of mixed marriages registered estimated at 30 per cent of all mixed marriages in Malaysia annually. And there are signs that PKR is fast gaining ground. At a recent party fund-raising dinner in Miri, about 3,000 people, mostly from the Dayak community, attended and raised an estimated RM300,000 for the state PKR war chest to fight in the state elections. The Sarawak state assembly currently has a total of 71 seats. Taib's PBB holds 35 seats, the Sarawak United Progressive Party (SUPP) 11 seats, the Sarawak Progressive Development Party (SPDP) eight and Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) eight, for a total of 62 seats. According to reliable sources, the BN could lose up to 30 seats in the next state elections, which would mean that Pakatan Rakyat just needs to capture six extra seats to win power, if the elections were held today. Anwar is hoping that by capturing the state government, it would force Sarawak BN Members of Parliament to jump ship to Pakatan Rakyat and help him capture power at the federal level. He would then avoid facing a rejuvenated Umno under the heir apparent prime minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak, at the next general election. BN must work hard to stop Anwar and PKR from winning too many seats in the Sarawak state elections to prevent the erosion of grassroots support which will eventually lead to major losses in parliamentary seats in BN's once impenetrable backyard. A week is a long time in politics, many people say. But time is not on the side of ailing long-time strongman Taib. He is exactly in the same position where Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamd was in 2003. He needs to engineer a more sincere and smooth transition of power to a politically acceptable successor. That is his biggest problem. The next Sarawak state elections will hinge on his statesmanship. Failure to do so may launch Pakatan Rakyat into power in Putrajaya.
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