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The Kuala Terengganu parliamentary by-election will show whether Barisan Nasional has gained ground among Malays or if Pakatan Rakyat can overcome the disarray among its members, writes ZUBAIDAH ABU BAKAR
THERE is one word that Parti Islam SeMalaysia does not want bandied about during the impending Kuala Terengganu by-election: sodomy. Pas leaders worry that discussing such a sensitive issue in the conservative Malay community can be detrimental to their party's chances of wresting the parliamentary seat from Barisan Nasional, as conservative Malays are often susceptible to being influenced by such allegations. Unless Umno has not learned its lesson in losing the Permatang Pauh by-election last August, campaigning for Kuala Terengganu is unlikely to be clouded by the sodomy allegations against Parti Keadilan Rakyat de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, now pending in court. Post-Permatang Pauh analysis found that the screening of the video clip of Anwar's young accuser, his former aide Saiful Bukhari Azlan, swearing on the Quran had backfired. Voters were put off and gave Anwar a thumping victory over Barisan Nasional's Datuk Arif Shah Omar Shah. But politicians often throw caution to the wind. They would take the risk if they thought harping on the sodomy issue would bring down their opponent. Many may not be aware that Terengganu Pas once banned the former deputy prime minister from speaking about the sodomy allegations against him. When Anwar went on a nationwide tour to counter the allegations, the state Pas liaison committee reached a consensus not to allow him to include Terengganu in his itinerary. But PKR and Pas insiders say there was more to the matter. The real reason, they say, was that the more conservative quarters in Pas, headed by party president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang and including Terengganu chief Datuk Mus-taffa Ali, were not at ease with the full backing given to Anwar by the some of the more progressive and younger leaders in the party. It was also perceived that the Terengganu faction, then keen to cooperate with Umno, was attempting to distance itself from Anwar, leading to the hush-hush Pas-Umno unity talks after the March 8 polls. Anwar reportedly took the unwelcome gesture in his stride, continuing his tour around the country to tell his side of the story on the sodomy allegations. Ironically, he shared the stage with Pas leaders elsewhere during that tour: with Hadi at a ceramah in Kedah, with Pas spiritual leader Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat in Kelantan and with Perak Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin in Perak. But he was not welcome in Hadi's home state of Terengganu. However, PKR did address the issue in Terengganu. Batu Buruk assemblyman Syed Azman Syed Ahmad Nawawi, seen as part of the pro-Anwar group in Pas, organised a small ceramah in KT to explain the sodomy issue. Anwar himself lay low; PKR strategist and Machang assemblyman Saifuddin Nasution Ismail took the microphone instead. Other than Syed Azman, no state Pas leader was on that stage. However, Anwar's trip to Marang on Oct 22 to speak at a ceramah at Hadi's famed Rusila Mosque near Kuala Terengganu showed a Terengganu Pas "more open" to accepting Anwar as leader of Pakatan Rakyat. Pas-linked blog Siasahdaily posted pictures of Anwar and Mustaffa seated side by side inside the mosque. But whether Pas hardliners will accept Pakatan's machinery, at least for the by-election, remains to be seen. Malay voters, who make up more than 88 per cent of Kuala Terengganu's electorate, are again in focus. With the debate on ketuanan Melayu, the by-election may indicate if Umno's allegation that Pakatan Rakyat is "selling out Malays" has gained ground against the coalition governing Kedah, Penang, Perak, Selangor and Kelantan. Umno members have criticised Anwar's stance on the New Economic Policy and are debating the social contract relating to Malay rights, Malay rulers, Islam as the country's official religion and Bahasa Malaysia as the national language. Saifuddin said: "It will show how effective Umno has been in regaining ground since its leaders have been telling Malays that Anwar and his allies cannot be trusted to take care of their well-being. "Pakatan Rakyat leaders, too, have to deal with the disarray in the opposition coalition over Malay-Muslim issues." Pas is not optimistic of commanding the Malay vote either. Its leaders are under pressure from the grassroots over issues such as the sale of alcohol in Selangor, multilingual road signs in Penang and pig farms in Selangor and Kedah, besides Malay sovereign rights, all of which may dilute Malay support of the opposition. A clear acknowledgement that Pakatan Rakyat has not fully secured the Malay ground was a joint agreement signed by Anwar, Hadi and DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang that Pakatan remained committed to upholding the Constitution's provisions on the rights of Malays. There may spoilers: Ang-katan Keadilan Insan Malaysia president Hanafi Mamat and 89-year-old grandmother Maimun Yusuf are keen to contest, but the real contest is between Pas and Umno. In the March general election, the late Datuk Razali Ismail managed a 628-majority win in a three-cornered fight with Pas vice-president Mohamad Sabu and Maimun. Political watchers are hedging their bets for now, calling odds even at 50:50 for Umno and Pas. (NST)
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