As the largest state in Malaysia with a land area equivalent to approximately 124,450 square kilometer, Sarawak has 71 state constituencies making it the state with the highest number of state constituencies. Though not the most heavily populated state with only about 2,400,000 residents, Sarawak nonetheless represents an important part of Malaysia with its abundance of natural resources, namely timber, LNG and petroleum. With Kedah (rice), Penang (tourism & technology), Perak (tin and rubber), Selangor (business) and Kelantan already being PR controlled, adding Sarawak to the list is of utmost importance as this is one of the two East Malaysian states. It also represents a vital foothold across the sea to establish an effective opposition front during the next general elections.

Sarawakians are made up from 52% Ethnics, 26% Chinese, 21% Malays and 1% Indians and others. The major political parties here consist of Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu (BN), Sarawak United People’s Party (BN), Parti Rakyat Sarawak (BN), Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (BN), Sarawak National Party (Independent), DAP (PR) and PKR (PR). Using the previous Parliamentary Elections as a yardstick, the BN coalition won 30 seats out of a total of 31 seats contested. This represented a 96.8% win for the BN parties. That however only exhibits one side of the grim picture. What PR needs to understand when looking at the alternate side is that there was an additional 3.0% swing to the BN parties when compared to the 2004 Parliamentary elections (only Perlis on the Malaysian peninsular swung to BN whilst Sabah and Labuan both swung 4.0% to BN).

With Gabriel Adit’s entry into PR early this month, Sarawak is now represented by 2 PR parliamentarians. That is still a 93.5% BN parliamentary representation. He brought over 12,000 supporters but this only represents a miserly 0.5% of the state’s population. For the state elections, PR needs to win a simple majority of 36 seats. To achieve this, the swing must almost be identical to Kuala Lumpur’s 2008 results (19.7% to PR). Is this possible? That percentage equates to a minimum of 240,000 BN votes changing to PR votes. Take away the 12,000 new votes and PR still requires a minimal 228,000 BN voters to change their mind.

DAP now has 6 (Pending, Batu Lintang, Kota Sentosa, Meradong, Bukit Assek & Kidurong) state seats whilst PKR has 2 (Padungan & Ngemah) and SNP (independent) has 1 (Engkilili). That is 9 opposition seats against 62 BN seats. That means BN parties make up 85% of the state government and this entitles them to a “carte blanche” situation whereby the opposition voice is effectively muted. If 14 BN state councilors cross over to PR, the BN coalition still retains a two-third majority. If the opposition party intends to curtail this overwhelming BN position, they will need to win at least 24 state seats (to deny BN the two-third majority).

Let’s look at Sarawak in detail. Sarawak is divided into 11 administrative divisions. They are Betong, Bintulu, Kapit, Kuching, Limbang, Miri, Mukah, Samarahan, Sarikei, Sibu, and Sri Aman. Of the nine state opposition seats, Padungan and Pending are under Kuching – a 90% Chinese populated area. Batu Lintang and Kota Sentosa are under Stampin, which is another Chinese populated area (78%). Meradong (Sarikei) has a 67.2% Chinese population, Bukit Assek (Lanang) has a 73% Chinese population and Kidurong (Bintulu) has a 26% Chinese population. These are the state seats that were won at the polls by PR. Look closely and one will identify one quantifying factor – the Chinese vote. With only a 25% Chinese population within the state of Sarawak, will this be sufficient to cause a change of state government? The answer is no.

Before PR can look at other alternatives, they must get the fundamentals right. Let’s look at the state constituencies with more than 50% Chinese as voters. Other than those stated above, the rest are Bawang Assan, Pelawan and Nangka in the Sibu Division (60%); Piasau, Pujut and Senadin in the Miri Division (55%); Repok in Sarikei (67%); Batu Kawah in Stampin (78%); and Dudong in Lanang (73%). This is only another miserable 9 state seats. Add this hypothetical figure to the existing 9 seats and you get 18 seats altogether (if PR relies purely on the Chinese votes). BN still holds the two-thirds majority.

It can henceforth be determined conclusively that PR needs to court the critical Iban and Melanau votes. Without these, PR can never string up sufficient state seats to trouble the BN parties. The theoretical 18 seats only make up 25% of the state assembly. PR needs 24 state seats to deny BN the two-thirds majority and 36 state seats to form the state government.

With the impending state elections due in 30 months (or thereabouts), everything should be on express mode now. PR must start, and start now to establish themselves in Sarawak. This is the last chance for them to grab another state before 2013. They must be ready when it happens because the 31 parliamentary seats are actually on stake here even though it is only the 71 state seats that are being contested. A good showing here would mean that the possibility of a federal election win is underway. A fair showing would mean that there are still a lot of things to be done in Sarawak and a bad showing would be disastrous. Both Sabah and Sarawak has 25 and 31 parliamentary seats respectively. That is 56 out of the 222 available seats, or 25% of the total.

And then there are Pensiangan and Kuala Terengganu to see where the pendulum swings.

- Hakim Joe

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