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Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob is a trained lawyer and Malaysian political commentator. He writes for numerous international newspapers and online journals as well as hosts Face to Face, an interview segment of Malaysian/regional issues and personalities hosted on Malaysia Today. He also serves as Foreign Correspondent for foreign news organisations. 

Philip Bowring, one of the key figures – as business editor, deputy editor and then editor at the Far Eastern Economic Review (FEER) during its golden age. A 35-year resident of the Asian region, he has documented the transformation of the region from China’s cultural revolution to today’s China’s meteoric rise along the way having some close encounters with Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew. Face to Face gets the opportunity to talk to this commentator for the International Herald Tribune (IHT) / Consultant Editor of Asia Sentinel www.asiasentinel.com on the regional trends expected in 2008 and beyond.

1. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: Editor of FEER, you had a face off with Lee Kuan Yew. FEER today is now banned in Singapore. What was that experience like and was it necessary at all?

Phillip Bowring: There were several episodes in the FEER-LKY relationship. I was also once sued by LKY, Goh Chok Tong and BG Lee for something I wrote in the IHT. The FEER was originally banned back in the late 80s, but that was lifted not long after I ceased to be editor in 1992. The FEER then was not the first time LKY took on the press and would not be the last. But we fought harder then – a long battle which we knew we would lose in Lee’s courts -- and were prepared to take loss of circulation rather than neuter our coverage. LKY always said that he would hit the foreign press in their pockets and they would cave in. He was largely right. It will be interesting to see how Murdoch deals with the current case against FEER now that he owns the monthly. His reputation for putting commercial interests above all others is well-deserved.

2. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: What’s life after FEER like?

Phillip Bowring: It’s 16 years since I left and there has been plenty of life for me so I cant complain. There are always lots of interesting things to do and write about on business as well as politics. Sometimes age now helps as institutional memories are weak and there is a need for more perspective and fewer sound bites.

3. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: You say that Malaysia is in a political cul-de-sac. That’s a harsh observation. No future here?

Phillip Bowring: I don’t think it’s a harsh observation as it applies only to the political set-up, not the nation as a whole. But the circumstances that created the Alliance, then the Barisan, and resulted in the NEP have changed. Meanwhile the political structure has become more fossilised and money-driven, and as a consequence social divides are greater.

4. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: You have stated that to be modern, Malaysia must be secular. However, Malaysia is already to a certain extent modern, wouldn’t you agree?

Phillip Bowring: Well yes it is modern in many ways. But modernity is not just about buildings and infrastructure and even material living standards. It also involves institutions, scientific creativity, educational standards and even contribution to the wider world. I cant think of a truly modern state which is not essentially secular – oil rich emirates don’t count. In Malaysia’s case multi-ethnic society makes secularism – in the sense of laws and procedures governing all citizens regardless of belief – doubly important.

5. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: You are of the view that South East Asian (SEA) nations aren’t thinking strategic enough in terms of the wider region. What should Malaysia and the other SEA nations be looking at in this respect?

Phillip Bowring: There is so much talk, so many meetings but ASEAN’s real progress even on trade issues has been very limited in practice – which explains why so many bilateral deals are being done which create the “noodle bowl” effect. Most of the increases in regional trade have been driven by private sector investment and changes in manufacturing systems which have been the result of global trade and financial sector liberalisation not ASEAN paper agreements.

6. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: What are the international communities’ expectations of Deputy Prime Minister, Najib Razak?

Phillip Bowring: I don’t believe there is such an animal as the “international community”. As for Najib, his international profile is quite low – except perhaps in Mongolia.

7. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: In a piece published in the South China Morning Post, commemorating Malaysia’s 50th year of Independence, you gave the cautious thumbs up to Malaysia despite all its trials and tribulations. What’s your future outlook for the next ten years?

Phillip Bowring: What a question! The commodity price cycle has always been a major determinant of Malaysia’s economic ups and downs and remains so despite industrialisation. I expect another couple of buoyant years. But the next downturn will probably produce pressure for political change just as the late 90s crisis gave us the Mahathir/Anwar split and the mid-80s recession both Razaleigh/Mahathir and the then Mahathir’s changes to the NEP to bring in new investment.

8. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: Let’s get into some regional trends. The huge Sovereign Wealth Funds led by China, Gulf nations and Singapore, are buying up all the good stuff at this point. They seem unstoppable. Should they be curtailed by Governments? What sort of effect will such funds and investments have on the region in 5 years?

Phillip Bowring: The small oil exporters will continue to have large surpluses and buy assets. Singapore also. But I expect the China surplus to fall quite fast due to energy prices and the US and general global slowdown.The funds will also need to keep lower profiles to avoid political opposition and buy small amounts of many companies rather than big positions in a few. I also think its lousy investment policy for Asian governments to throw good money after over-priced western investment banks, some of which deserve to fail.

9. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: The World Bank announced that the economies of China and India are about 40% smaller than earlier estimated. Will this impede China and India’s projection as an economic powerhouse? Will this new data have an impact on the growth and expectations of SEA countries?

Phillip Bowring: This is just playing with purchasing power parity numbers. Growth in china and India need to slow because both have serious imbalances. But the issue of how big they are now is a separate one.

10. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: SEA nations are still largely export oriented countries and are also riding on high commodity prices in 2008. Is this sustainable?

Phillip Bowring: No but is probably good for a while yet particularly as they are mostly net food exporters and food prices look set to remain high due to bio-fuels as well as rising incomes in major developing countries.

11. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: What’s your final verdict on America and the sub-prime crisis? Recession in the US? Has Asia really decoupled from the US economy? What effects to the South East Asian region?

Phillip Bowring: It is not a sub-prime crisis but the inevitable day of reckoning for across-the-board over-expansion of credit through fancy but opaque vehicles created by investment banks and to which the Federal Reserve’s Greenspan turned a blind eye.

No country can de-couple completely. SE Asia as a region is luckier than most due to commodities. Manufactured exports are important but because value added in them in quite low they are not as important as crude trade data suggest. The region is also a big net recipient of tourism and remittance earnings which will be less affected.

12. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: Barack Obama is at present leading the polls in the US presidential elections. If he wins, will that significantly change US foreign policy that’s perceived as belligerent and effectually destabilising the world?

Phillip Bowring: I hope so. I remember the hugely positive Kennedy effect on global perceptions of the US and it would be gratifying to see reversals of current perceptions as well as the policies which caused them. However even if he wins, Obama faces actual (not just perception) challenges far greater than Kennedy faced of accommodating US’s reduced influence, debt levels and demographics.

Thank you for taking the time to talk to Face to Face.

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