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By Anil Netto
PENANG - It took exactly seven months after a general electoral setback for Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi to announce that he would not be defending the presidency of the dominant party in the ruling coalition in intra-party polls next year.
The announcement, when it finally came on Wednesday, appears to pave the way for his deputy, Najib Razak, to take over the helm of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) and the premiership. UMNO had earlier postponed its party polls from December to March as part of a controversial transition plan between Abdullah and Najib.
The move throws into further doubt Abdullah's ability to implement the reforms he promised when, in November 2003, he took over the reins from his authoritarian predecessor Mahathir Mohamad, who has been sniping at his anointed successor ever since.
Voters rallied around the promise of change the following year, giving Abdullah a landslide victory as his Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition swept over 90% of parliamentary seats with 64% of the popular vote. But despite initial measures, Abdullah failed to deliver when it mattered most, especially in reforming the police and judiciary, and in stamping out widespread corruption.
Within four years, disillusioned voters deserted the ruling coalition in droves as the BN suffered its biggest electoral setback in the March 8 general election. It lost five states to the opposition as well as its coveted two-thirds parliamentary majority, winning just over half the popular vote. Abdullah's days seemed numbered, but still he hung on.
In August, his administration suffered a further setback when former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim returned to parliament as opposition leader after winning a by-election in Permatang Pauh with a bigger majority. The seat on mainland Penang, Abdullah's home state, had been vacated by Anwar's wife Wan Azizah, the president of the People's Justice Party (PKR).
The larger majority, coming just over four months after the general election, suggested to some that support for the BN may have waned even further since the March polls. On September 16, Anwar claimed he had secured the 31 defections from BN parliamentarians that the opposition People's Alliance needs to topple the federal government and form a new administration. But he was unable to stake that claim as parliament was still in recess.
Observers are now closely watching to see if those defections to the People's Alliance will materialize when parliament reopens on October 13. Abdullah's announcement five days ahead of that date suggests he has bowed to his party's demands for a change in leadership, perhaps to stave off the challenge not just from Anwar but from rival camps within UMNO.
His announcement also comes weeks after the business press here reported alarming second quarter economic and market figures, indicating there had been a substantial outflow of portfolio funds offsetting recent gains in direct investment. Although the surplus in the goods account in the second quarter was the largest since 2001, on the back of a 16% rise in exports, portfolio investments were leaving the country.
The tide turned as the first quarter's inflow of RM21 billion (US$6 billion) in portfolio investments swung to a net outflow of RM21 billion in the second quarter.
The outflow was driven ''partly by unrelenting political tension since the March 8 general election and the broad sell-off of the stock market'', reported business portal, The Edge, on September 15.
The press - and crucially, the business community - also appeared to be warming to Anwar, who believes in a market economy balanced by humane social policies. The People's Alliance state governments have also been touting new ''pro-business'' policies.
Intra-party strife
The writing was on the wall as Abdullah came under intense pressure from second echelon party leaders urging him to quit. On September 17, the untested Najib took over the powerful finance minister's portfolio from Abdullah, while the embattled premier took over the defense ministry in a swap.
In another blow for Abdullah, the de facto law minister Zaid Ibrahim, who the premier had recruited to push forward his legal reforms, confirmed he was quitting a day earlier. At a press conference Wednesday, Abdullah gamely vowed to carry through his reform program for the rest of his premiership. He also said he wanted to see through reforms to the judiciary, the police and anti-corruption agency.
But with Zaid gone and Najib - not known for being a political reformer - breathing down his neck, few are betting that Abdullah, who could well soon become a lame duck premier, will be able to rise to the challenge. If Abdullah could not push through the reforms at the height of his popularity, analysts say, it seems doubtful he could do so now. However, some suggest that Abdullah could yet have another trick or two up his sleeve. When asked who his successor would be, he replied: "I hope it is Najib. Why do I say hope? Najib has to stand for UMNO elections first. Once he wins the elections and becomes party president then we will discuss it."
Cynics say this lack of commitment could still leave some wriggle room for Abdullah or someone else to maneuver. Political observers point out that Abdullah did not reach the nation's top post without being an astute, if colorless, politician with staying power.
One dark horse is former finance minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, who earlier indicated he could contest for UMNO's top post. "I am confident I have a chance even if Abdullah does not contest as the people within and outside of UMNO have accepted me," he said on September 27. But that might be a tall order, as analysts believe he lacks grassroots support within the party.
Najib, the son of a former prime minister, has been widely implicated in the murder of a Mongolian national - an allegation he has vehemently denied. Last month one of his biggest critics, Raja Petra Kamarudin, who runs the hugely popular Malaysia Today website, was detained without trial under the Internal Security Act (ISA). The outspoken blogger is also in court this week facing a charge of sedition for an article he wrote in connection with the murder case.
Significantly, Abdullah's reform agenda does not include a repeal of the ISA, which the People's Alliance has vowed to abolish if it seizes power. Zaid quit Abdullah's cabinet in protest over his use of the ISA against Raja Petra and two others, a prominent opposition politician and a journalist.
The two were soon released, but Raja Petra was given a two-year prison term by Home Minister Syed Hamid Albar for allegedly publishing articles that were critical of Islam. Civil society activists fret that Najib's ascent may signal a return to full-blown authoritarianism, as seen under Mahathir, and a resurgence of the political old guard.
Mahathir himself has made it clear that the old guard did not take kindly to Zaid's reform ideas. "Apparently without bothering to consult the cabinet or the prime minister, he publicly proposed so-called legal and judicial reforms," wrote Mahathir in his blog. "He proposed that judges should be appointed by a panel on which sit several members of the Bar Council. He did not think it odd that members of the bar would in the course of their work be facing the judges they appointed."
Left unsaid was the implication that an independent judiciary could have threatened the UMNO's hegemony over the long run. Meanwhile, all kinds of political permutations and combinations are being talked about, including Razaleigh's new suggestion for a "unity government". But, for now, attention shifts to the reopening of parliament on October 13, where Anwar will push for a motion of no-confidence against a weakened Abdullah.
(Inter Press Service)
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