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Analysis by Anil Netto, IPS
It took exactly seven months after a severe general electoral setback for Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi to announce that he would not be defending the presidency of the dominant party in the ruling coalition in party polls next year.
The announcement, when it finally came Wednesday, appears to pave the way for his deputy Najib Razak to take over the helm of the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) -- and the premiership. UMNO had earlier postponed its party polls from December to March as part of a controversial transition plan between Abdullah and Najib.
It throws into doubt Abdullah's ability to implement the reforms he promised when in November 2003 he took over the reins from his authoritarian predecessor Mahathir Mohamad, who has been sniping at his anointed successor ever since.
Voters rallied around the promise of change the following year, giving Abdullah a landslide victory, as his Barisan Nasional coalition swept over 90 percent of parliamentary seats with 64 per cent of the popular vote.
But despite initial measures, Abdullah failed to deliver when it mattered most, especially in reforming the police and the judiciary and in stamping out widespread corruption.
Within four years, disillusioned voters deserted the ruling coalition in droves as the Barisan Nasional suffered its biggest electoral setback in the Mar. 8 general election. It lost five states to the opposition as well as its coveted two-thirds parliamentary majority, winning just over half the popular vote. Abdullah's days were numbered, but still he hung on.
In August this year, his administration suffered a further setback, when former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim returned to Parliament as Opposition Leader after winning a by-election in Permatang Pauh with a bigger majority. The seat on mainland Penang, Abdullah's home state, had been vacated by Anwar's wife Wan Azizah, the president of the People's Justice Party (PKR). The larger winning majority, coming just over four months after the general election, suggested that support for the ruling coalition may have waned even further since March.
By Sep. 16, Anwar claimed he had secured the 31 defections from ruling coalition parliamentarians that the opposition People's Alliance needed to topple the federal government. But he was unable to take it further as Parliament was in recess.
Observers are now closely watching to see if those defections to the Alliance will materialise when Parliament reopens on Oct 13.
Abdullah's announcement five days ahead of that date suggests he has bowed to his party's demands for a change in leadership, perhaps to stave off the challenge not just from Anwar but from rivals camps within UMNO.
But the clincher could have come from another source. His announcement came weeks after the business press here reported alarming second quarter figures indicating there had been a substantial outflow of portfolio funds, offsetting gains in direct investment.
Although the surplus in the goods account in the second quarter was the largest since 2001 on the back of a 16 percent rise in exports, portfolio investments were leaving the country. The tide turned as the first quarter's inflow of RM21 billion (six billion US dollars) in portfolio investments swung to a net outflow of RM21 billion in the second quarter.
The outflow was driven ''partly by unrelenting political tension since the March 8 general election and the broad sell-off of the stock market'', reported the business portal The Edge on Sep. 15.
The press -- and crucially, the business community -- also appeared to be warming up to Anwar, who believes in a 'market economy' balanced by 'humane' social policies. The People's Alliance state governments have also been touting their ''pro-business'' policies.
The writing was on the wall as Abdullah came under intense pressure from second echelon party leaders urging him to quit. On Sep. 17, the untested Najib took over the powerful finance minister's portfolio from Abdullah, while Abdullah took over defence in a swap. In another blow for Abdullah, the de facto law minister Zaid Ibrahim, whom the premier had roped in to push forward his legal reforms, confirmed he was quitting a day earlier.
At the press conference yesterday, Abdullah gamely vowed to carry through his reform programme for the rest of his premiership. He said he wanted to see through reforms to the judiciary, the police and anti-corruption agency.
But with Zaid gone and Najib -- not known for being a political liberal -- breathing down the neck, few are betting that Abdullah, who could well become a lame duck premier, will be able to rise to the challenge. If Abdullah could not push through the reforms at the height of his popularity, how he is going to do it now, ask analysts.
Some are suggesting that Abdullah could have a trick or two up his sleeve. When asked who his successor would be, he replied: ''I hope it is Najib. Why do I say hope? Najib has to stand for UMNO elections first. Once he wins the elections and becomes party president then we will discuss it.''
Cynics suggest this could leave some wriggle room for Abdullah or someone else to manoeuvre. Observers point out that Abdullah did not reach the nation's top post without being an astute, if colourless, politician with staying power.
One dark house lurking is former finance minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, who had indicated he could contest for the top post in UMNO. ''I am confident I have a chance even if Abdullah does not contest as the people within and outside of UMNO have accepted me,'' he said on Sept 27. But that might be a tall order, as analysts believe he lacks grassroots support within the party.
Najib himself has been implicated in the murder of a Mongolian national -- an allegation he has vehemently denied. Last month, one of his biggest critics, Raja Petra Kamarudin, who runs the hugely popular Malaysia Today website, was detained without trial under the Internal Security Act. He is also in court this week facing a charge of sedition for an article he wrote in connection with the murder case.
Significantly, Abdullah's reform agenda does not include a repeal of the ISA -- which the People's Alliance has vowed to abolish if it seizes power. Zaid himself quit the Cabinet in protest over the use of the ISA on Raja Petra and two others, a prominent politicians and a journalist. Civil society activists worry that Najib's ascendancy could mean a period of more authoritarian rule and a return of some of the old guard.
Mahathir himself has made it clear that the old guard did not take kindly to Zaid's ideas. ''Apparently without bothering to consult the Cabinet or the Prime Minister he publicly proposed so-called legal and judicial reforms,'' wrote Mahathir in his blog. ''He proposed that judges should be appointed by a panel on which sit several members of the Bar Council. He did not think it odd that members of the bar would in the course of their work be facing the judges they appointed.''
Unsaid was the implication that an independent judiciary could have threatened UMNO's hegemony in the long run.
Meanwhile, all kinds of permutations and alliances are being talked about, including Razaleigh's suggestion for a 'unity government'. But for now, attention will shift to the reopening of Parliament on Oct 13 to gauge whether Anwar can push through a motion of no-confidence in Abdullah, either directly or indirectly.
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