The Malaysian Insider Commentary

Having witnessed the forced exit of Datuk Seri Abdullah Badawi, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad is now training his guns on his other nemesis: Khairy Jamaluddin.

His sarcastic comments on his blog about the PM’s son-in-law mark the beginning of what is likely to be a campaign to make sure that the latter fails in his attempt at becoming the Umno Youth leader, and becomes a political footnote.

There is an added impetus for Dr Mahathir to succeed – Khairy’s failure could clear the path for Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir’s rise up the ladder in Umno.

In the former prime minister’s eyes, Abdullah and Khairy have been responsible for dismantling parts of his legacy and encouraging many Malaysians to equate his tenure with the destruction of institutions such
as the judiciary, and excesses in the system.

His anger against both of them has been stewing for more than four years. Indeed, several weeks after Abdullah took over as prime minister on Oct 31 2003, Dr Mahathir started having second thoughts about his
successor, complaining that the PM was scratching several mega projects conceived by him.

He was also upset that several initiatives announced by Abdullah – the move to rehabilitate the judiciary; improve the public delivery service; tackle corruption and shore up the country’s police force – appeared
designed to put his years in office in unfavourable light.

Troubling to him also were reports that Abdullah’s special officers, especially Khairy, were lamenting that Dr Mahathir’s profligacy in his last 12 months in office has resulted in a depleted treasury.

The former prime minister and his circle of supporters could not accept that Abdullah – in their estimation a simpleton – could put together a reform agenda and put the brakes on spending. They believed that he was
influenced by Khairy and other advisors, later to be called the Fourth Floor.

From then on, it only became a question of when. When would Dr Mahathir publicly attack Abdullah and Khairy?

He could not do so in 2004 because the PM had just led the Barisan Nasional to a resounding victory in the general elections and was very popular inside and outside Umno. Indeed, the size of the victory and the fact that some politicians were attributing it to the Abdullah factor created some resentment in the Mahathir camp.

Malacca Governor’s Tan Sri Khalil Yaakob seemingly innocent observation that 99 per cent of the victory was due to Abdullah did not go down well with Dr Mahathir. Two years later, the former prime minister still remembered that statement.

Khairy’s run at the number two position in Umno Youth and his election to the position unopposed in 2004 angered Dr Mahathir further. In a posting on his blog this week, Dr Mahathir wrote: “He won it uncontested. Apart from Umno Youth chief Hishammuddin Hussein, who gave other possible candidates a tongue lashing – telling them in no uncertain terms that they must not contest the position because it was reserved for the Prime

Minister’s son-in-law, others suspected of having ambitions to contest for the post received phone calls from family members of the PM and other influential supporters not to do anything to spoil the ambition of this
first time Umno member, with absolutely no track record, from winning uncontested.’’

Like an open sore, the anger against Abdullah and Khairy festered. In 2006, sensing that Abdullah’s honeymoon was over and there was growing impatience among Malaysians over his indecisiveness, Dr Mahathir declared war on Abdullah, his family, Khairy, the Fourth Floor and anyone else who dared to defend the Prime Minister.

He accused the PM of nepotism and cronyism, alleged that he had abdicated decision-making to Khairy and his advisors and lashed out at him for stopping the project to build a crooked bridge to Singapore. This
campaign ebbed and flowed over two years, depending on Dr Mahathir’s health, but it had a significant impact on Abdullah’s reputation and Khairy’s public image.

Abdullah’s supporters believed that if he led the BN to another strong victory in the general elections in 2008, he would be able to silence Dr Mahathir for good. Conversely, they knew that if the Opposition made some
gains on March 8, the PM would face calls for resignation from the former prime minister.

They were wrong. Dr Mahathir did not wait for the outcome of the polls to launch another volley. A few days before voting, he said that Malaysia needed a stronger opposition and questioned Abdullah’s fitness to lead. The loss of two-thirds majority in Parliament and four states to the Opposition gave Dr Mahathir and his supporters more ammunition and a much more receptive audience in Umno.

His calls for Abdullah’s resignation and framing the election results as the sole responsibility of the PM found strong support in a party stunned by the loss of territory and fearful of the resurgent Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

Despite Abdullah’s efforts to stay in office until 2010, it became  increasingly clear – especially after the loss of the Permatang Pauh by-election in August – that he had lost the support of many supreme council members. There was genuine fear that if Abdullah stayed in office, the Anwar-led Opposition would roll over the BN at the next polls.

There is genuine concern among Dr Mahathir and his supporters on what the return of Anwar Ibrahim would mean for them. In September, Dr Mahathir played his strongest card. He gave an ultimatum to Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak: continue supporting Abdullah as the leader and be prepared for your dirty linen to be washed in public.

That warning seemed to have some effect. A flurry of activity and meetings between Abdullah and Najib followed and it culminated in the March transition plan. Under this plan, Abdullah would remain in office until March but would not contest the Umno elections.

Abdullah’s fidelity to the plan yesterday marked a victory for Dr Mahathir and he was in no charitable mood. Asked by Bernama what Abdullah should do between now and March, he replied: “Shut Up.’’

But shut up is something which the former prime minister will not do – not until he sees Khairy fall flat in his attempt to become Umno Youth chief. Revenge will only be complete when the man he despises – some say more than Abdullah – is forced to take a back seat in the party.

Will Dr Mahathir succeed? Possibly. But really, Khairy’s chances of becoming the leader of the youth wing hinges more on what Najib does rather than what the former prime minister says. If Najib sends the signal that he wants the divisions to support Khairy, he will become the head of the youth wing.

As it stands now, Najib is unlikely to endorse any candidate publicly, a move which will embolden Khairy’s enemies - including Dr Mahathir.

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