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MALAYSIAN opposition figure Anwar Ibrahim is expected to be formally charged for sodomy soon, as he gears up to run for a parliamentary seat in a northern state.
The former deputy premier has dismissed the allegation as a political ploy aimed at preventing the opposition from winning power for the first time in Malaysian history.
Here are possible scenarios of how events might play out in the weeks ahead, according to political analysts.
Anwar is charged for sodomy - The authorities press sodomy charges, triggering fears of a replay of Datuk Seri Anwar's jailing about a decade ago on a similar charge which sparked off massive street protests and sullied Malaysia's international reputation for upholding rule of law.
- 'Some of Mr Anwar's more fervent supporters may again start to go out on the streets and demonstrate', said Mr Lee Hock Guan, senior fellow with Singapore's Institute of South East Asian Studies.
- 'If they do that, it may give some faction within the UMNO party the excuse to crack down and arrest some of the leaders under the Internal Security Act'.
- A charge without a conviction would leave Mr Anwar free to contest in a by-election but could impede campaigning plans. He is regarded as a shoo-in for the parliamentary seat of Permatang Pauh, a semi-rural enclave in northern Penang state.
- The sodomy charge could help win more public sympathy for Mr Anwar but the authorities hope the allegation would negate the opposition's pitch on the campaign trail. 'The court case will provide all the sad scandal stories about him at the same time the campaign is on', said Mr James Chin, political science lecturer at Monash University, Malaysia. 'The idea is to use the sad stories to drown out the campaign message'.
- Malaysia's relations with some governments such as the United States could take a hit amid international suspicion about the veracity of the sodomy allegation, affecting trade ties with its single largest export market and harming the South-east Asian country's chances of securing a US free trade deal.
- A formal charge raises fears of a messy trial with more political mudslinging, threatening to further isolate foreign investors who have already been unnerved by months of political uncertainty.
- Charging Mr Anwar weakens the opposition alliance, which is now largely held together by the former deputy premier.
- Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's government suffers a greater public backlash, after a recent opinion poll showed that most Malaysians believe Mr Anwar is innocent.
- 'Based on public sentiment, UMNO and the government are doing this to be politically vindictive. It will not augur well for them', said Ms Tricia Yeoh, director of the Centre for Public Policy Studies.
Anwar's case is dropped - The authorities find insufficient evidence to charge Mr Anwar, clearing the way for him to run for parliament.
- Mr Anwar focuses on getting elected as a lawmaker, uniting a fragile opposition alliance which pushes on with its quest to seize power from the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition.
- The government says the move shows it is impartial and backs up its constant assertion that it never had a hand in the case. 'That means the government has been neutral', said Mr Zainon Ahmad, political editor with a Malaysian newspaper. 'It will smell like a rose'.
- Premier Abdullah's popularity among Malaysians is boosted, with the perception that the authorities have allowed justice to run its course.
- Mr Abdullah also wins points internationally, as he is seen as adopting a more neutral stand compared with his predecessor Mahathir Mohamad who sacked Mr Anwar in 1998.
The case languishes - The authorities neither charge Anwar nor drop the case against him, leaving the threat of a sudden arrest hanging over his head.
- The uncertainty further erodes investor confidence and deepens public suspicion about the truth of the sodomy allegation.
- Along the way there has been a lot of uncertainty whether the government really has a strong case against Mr Anwar', said Mr Zainon. 'The government must be completely transparent and everything must be above board. People have been complaining this has not been the case so far'.
- 'Anwar campaigns for the by-election and is elected to parliament. 'Permatang Pauh is his home base. Whether he is there or not, he'll win', said Mr Lee. 'By and large they still see a big injustice done to him since 1998'. -- REUTERS
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